* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DOLORES EP052015 07/12/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 45 52 59 67 83 90 96 92 93 88 90 84 79 77 71 66 V (KT) LAND 40 45 52 59 67 83 90 96 92 93 88 90 84 79 77 71 66 V (KT) LGEM 40 43 46 50 54 65 78 91 99 99 99 95 88 81 76 68 60 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 6 8 11 13 11 11 7 9 6 4 5 11 8 8 8 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 -2 -3 -5 -5 -6 -2 -4 -4 -3 -3 -5 -5 1 3 8 SHEAR DIR 252 216 254 283 290 302 316 323 346 308 357 43 62 75 63 59 51 SST (C) 30.3 30.4 30.2 30.2 30.4 30.3 29.6 29.0 28.5 28.3 27.7 26.6 26.5 26.3 25.6 25.3 24.9 POT. INT. (KT) 168 169 167 167 169 167 159 153 147 145 139 128 127 124 118 115 111 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -51.8 -51.6 -51.9 -51.7 -51.1 -51.4 -50.8 -51.2 -50.9 -50.8 -50.5 -50.8 -50.2 -50.4 -49.8 -50.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 1.0 1.4 1.3 1.1 1.2 1.0 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 8 7 6 8 7 8 6 7 5 6 5 5 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 78 81 79 77 78 71 70 70 71 70 69 68 68 63 56 47 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 18 18 19 21 26 27 32 32 37 36 41 40 38 38 34 30 850 MB ENV VOR -12 -12 -5 -1 -3 12 27 45 35 69 84 117 110 110 126 123 104 200 MB DIV 60 83 108 62 65 75 58 90 68 53 48 53 8 43 13 4 -22 700-850 TADV 6 9 0 -2 1 -1 0 -1 -1 -1 -2 0 -1 0 -2 0 -1 LAND (KM) 236 231 215 211 223 240 285 340 399 367 352 385 440 514 558 640 747 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.6 16.1 16.5 16.9 17.6 18.2 18.7 19.2 19.6 19.9 20.1 20.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 101.3 102.2 103.2 104.0 104.9 106.3 107.4 108.4 109.3 110.1 111.1 112.2 113.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 9 9 7 6 5 4 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 40 42 42 38 39 35 25 17 11 8 5 1 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 566 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 74.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 10. 15. 20. 22. 24. 25. 26. 26. 26. 25. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 19. 21. 28. 27. 32. 27. 23. 21. 15. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 10. 14. 22. 21. 12. 3. -3. -8. -12. -13. -14. -13. -13. -12. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 12. 19. 27. 43. 50. 56. 52. 53. 48. 50. 44. 39. 37. 31. 26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 15.1 101.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052015 DOLORES 07/12/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.84 14.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 7.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.0 30.9 to 7.7 0.64 8.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 75.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.56 7.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : -28.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.94 -11.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 5.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.88 8.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 40.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.37 2.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.38 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 64% is 5.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 43% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 5.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 28% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 65% is 11.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 57% is 12.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.7% 64.1% 43.5% 27.0% 23.2% 28.2% 65.4% 56.9% Logistic: 32.9% 72.6% 49.3% 28.6% 28.7% 36.3% 32.4% 38.5% Bayesian: 14.5% 54.1% 41.4% 29.1% 11.9% 24.0% 13.9% 7.9% Consensus: 21.0% 63.6% 44.7% 28.3% 21.3% 29.5% 37.2% 34.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052015 DOLORES 07/12/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##