* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HALOLA CP012015 07/12/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 53 56 58 63 64 61 60 59 59 59 59 60 61 62 63 V (KT) LAND 50 52 53 56 58 63 64 61 60 59 59 59 59 60 61 62 63 V (KT) LGEM 50 52 54 56 58 60 61 60 59 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 10 9 6 8 10 13 7 10 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 2 0 0 1 3 4 2 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 331 336 340 335 308 281 268 252 241 259 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.5 28.3 28.3 28.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 148 150 149 148 150 151 150 148 148 147 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.6 -52.3 -52.1 -52.6 -52.5 -52.6 -52.3 -52.2 -52.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 62 63 65 64 63 63 65 64 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 18 18 17 19 18 16 16 16 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 94 94 99 97 89 80 65 55 46 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 54 28 41 57 45 68 33 45 22 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 0 -1 -1 1 5 5 4 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2253 2332 2415 2494 2575 2759 2882 2642 2427 2220 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.7 12.1 12.5 13.0 13.4 14.2 15.0 15.8 16.8 17.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 178.6 179.7 180.8 181.9 182.9 185.1 187.3 189.5 191.5 193.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 12 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 44 63 55 39 44 53 32 34 43 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 546 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 22.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 10. 11. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -0. 1. -0. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -10. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 6. 8. 13. 14. 11. 10. 9. 9. 9. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 11.7 178.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP012015 HALOLA 07/12/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.60 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.5 30.9 to 7.7 0.54 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.41 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 232.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.65 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.38 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 49.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.46 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 3.8% 14.3% 8.7% 4.5% 2.3% 3.5% 3.4% 3.1% Bayesian: 3.1% 29.9% 11.0% 3.9% 0.6% 16.3% 29.5% 1.4% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012015 HALOLA 07/12/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##