* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HALOLA CP012015 07/11/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 46 49 52 59 63 64 60 57 53 54 56 56 57 58 58 V (KT) LAND 40 43 46 49 52 59 63 64 60 57 53 54 56 56 57 58 58 V (KT) LGEM 40 43 45 48 51 55 59 62 62 61 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 2 4 5 5 9 14 4 8 14 7 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -1 0 -4 -2 0 -1 0 -2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 327 325 339 321 324 346 306 283 267 287 260 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.5 28.3 28.0 28.2 28.3 28.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 149 150 151 152 153 150 148 145 147 148 147 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.5 -52.4 -52.4 -52.6 -52.4 -52.8 -52.6 -52.5 -52.5 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 57 57 58 62 64 65 66 66 68 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 14 13 13 14 13 13 12 11 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 105 106 100 95 98 98 90 79 59 53 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 25 16 5 15 30 50 48 43 28 29 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 1 2 2 0 -2 5 4 1 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1965 2039 2116 2195 2278 2442 2619 2819 2771 2533 2300 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.2 11.5 11.7 12.1 12.4 13.3 14.2 15.0 15.7 16.5 17.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 175.0 176.0 177.1 178.2 179.3 181.5 183.7 186.0 188.3 190.5 192.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 11 11 12 12 12 11 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 42 45 45 50 62 45 44 31 29 40 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 547 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 21.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 17. 19. 21. 23. 24. 26. 27. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 19. 23. 24. 20. 17. 13. 14. 16. 16. 17. 18. 18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 11.2 175.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP012015 HALOLA 07/11/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.70 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.4 30.9 to 7.7 0.76 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.27 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 208.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.68 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.65 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 48.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.46 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 27.1% 55.7% 40.2% 29.0% 22.3% 19.1% 28.5% 21.4% Bayesian: 2.8% 62.9% 13.7% 5.3% 16.9% 34.9% 60.3% 5.7% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012015 HALOLA 07/11/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##