* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HALOLA CP012015 07/11/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 43 48 51 60 66 68 65 60 57 54 55 56 57 57 57 V (KT) LAND 35 39 43 48 51 60 66 68 65 60 57 54 55 56 57 57 57 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 41 43 46 52 58 64 68 68 66 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 2 2 4 7 6 9 3 5 11 14 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -3 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 0 -1 -1 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 170 317 296 329 335 335 44 277 273 281 268 291 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.5 28.4 28.0 28.0 28.3 28.2 28.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 148 148 150 151 152 150 149 145 145 148 147 146 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.1 -52.5 -52.4 -52.3 -52.6 -52.2 -53.0 -52.5 -52.7 -52.5 -52.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 57 58 57 58 62 64 66 64 64 63 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 14 14 13 14 13 13 13 12 12 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 107 107 110 106 102 103 91 80 65 56 51 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 20 22 2 7 28 37 60 42 28 6 13 -19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 1 0 1 1 -1 0 3 1 0 0 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1889 1960 2033 2105 2181 2360 2533 2725 2888 2640 2407 2168 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.2 11.4 11.6 12.0 12.3 13.0 13.9 14.8 15.7 16.5 17.3 17.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 174.1 175.1 176.1 177.2 178.2 180.5 182.7 185.0 187.2 189.5 191.7 194.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 11 11 11 11 12 12 12 11 12 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 38 43 46 47 51 56 46 34 27 36 40 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 542 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 32.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 15. 19. 22. 25. 26. 28. 29. 31. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. 10. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -4. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 6. 4. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 16. 25. 31. 33. 30. 25. 22. 19. 20. 21. 22. 22. 22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 11.2 174.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP012015 HALOLA 07/11/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.73 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 30.9 to 7.7 0.83 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.25 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 189.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.70 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.81 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 45.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.42 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 66.8% 85.9% 75.2% 68.4% 64.8% 65.0% 52.9% 40.0% Bayesian: 7.4% 86.1% 45.9% 32.5% 46.0% 61.2% 66.3% 3.6% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012015 HALOLA 07/11/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##