* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOUR EP042015 07/09/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 31 29 27 23 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 31 29 27 23 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 28 27 23 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 15 16 20 22 25 27 32 41 46 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 3 6 10 3 7 5 2 -3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 254 248 239 227 225 212 214 210 223 223 222 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.8 25.7 25.9 25.9 26.0 26.3 26.4 26.6 26.5 26.6 26.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 123 121 123 123 124 127 128 130 129 130 125 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.7 -52.0 -52.1 -51.9 -52.0 -52.2 -52.5 -52.9 -53.2 -53.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.4 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 73 71 69 66 64 60 56 54 55 58 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 19 19 18 15 13 10 8 6 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 69 71 55 43 36 33 22 1 6 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 61 62 43 18 9 17 21 10 24 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 6 8 11 11 10 15 9 10 12 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1139 1013 891 774 665 455 330 259 249 296 488 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.9 18.6 19.2 19.9 20.5 21.4 22.3 23.2 24.0 24.8 25.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 144.1 145.2 146.3 147.4 148.5 150.9 153.2 155.5 157.9 160.3 162.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 12 12 12 12 11 12 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 4 2 5 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 730 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 9. 13. 17. 19. 21. 22. 21. 21. 20. 21. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. -0. -6. -14. -25. -30. -32. -33. -34. -36. -41. -44. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -4. -9. -12. -15. -14. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. -1. -3. -7. -13. -19. -27. -27. -27. -27. -28. -28. -31. -32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 17.9 144.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP042015 FOUR 07/09/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.55 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 30.1 30.9 to 7.7 0.04 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.37 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 124.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.77 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.47 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042015 FOUR 07/09/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##