* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOUR EP042015 07/08/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 34 35 35 34 31 26 21 19 21 22 22 21 19 19 V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 34 35 35 34 31 26 21 19 21 22 22 21 19 19 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 30 29 28 25 21 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 6 9 11 14 20 18 17 20 26 31 17 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -3 0 -1 0 3 0 6 1 2 -2 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 207 231 216 213 220 221 224 226 209 224 235 247 253 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.6 25.7 25.7 25.6 25.6 25.9 26.1 26.2 26.3 26.5 26.7 26.7 26.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 121 122 121 120 120 122 125 125 127 128 130 130 132 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.3 -52.3 -52.0 -52.0 -52.3 -52.3 -52.7 -52.7 -53.0 -53.1 -53.2 -53.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 81 78 76 73 70 69 68 65 59 57 57 57 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 14 15 16 16 14 12 9 7 6 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 56 62 67 61 61 43 28 3 -3 -16 -7 -13 -12 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 85 83 63 61 54 6 16 5 18 4 10 9 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 0 3 3 3 8 9 8 2 3 -2 -2 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1544 1399 1256 1136 1019 805 620 476 375 289 229 178 213 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.6 17.2 17.8 18.4 18.9 19.9 20.8 21.8 22.6 23.2 23.5 23.7 23.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 140.5 141.8 143.0 144.0 145.1 147.1 149.0 150.9 152.9 154.9 156.9 158.7 160.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 13 12 11 11 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 4 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 16 CX,CY: -10/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 528 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 12. 16. 18. 20. 21. 21. 20. 19. 20. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 1. -3. -7. -12. -14. -15. -15. -16. -19. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -7. -10. -11. -10. -9. -8. -7. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 1. -3. -9. -11. -9. -8. -8. -9. -11. -11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 16.6 140.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP042015 FOUR 07/08/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.53 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.5 30.9 to 7.7 0.58 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.53 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 87.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.81 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.68 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 1.2% 5.5% 1.1% 0.8% 0.2% 0.9% 1.4% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042015 FOUR 07/08/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##