* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CARLOS EP032015 06/17/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 62 60 59 58 58 58 57 56 56 56 56 55 56 57 60 63 V (KT) LAND 65 62 60 59 58 58 58 57 56 56 56 56 55 56 57 60 63 V (KT) LGEM 65 63 60 59 57 56 55 55 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 6 7 8 11 4 2 7 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 -2 -3 -5 2 -2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 34 26 6 10 41 114 143 207 209 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.4 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.4 27.1 27.4 28.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 146 143 142 141 138 135 132 135 142 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.9 -52.1 -52.0 -51.7 -52.2 -51.8 -52.3 -52.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 9 10 8 9 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 57 57 53 52 57 52 55 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -21 -9 -19 -28 -11 15 39 37 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -1 0 -10 3 6 -7 4 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 0 0 0 3 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 130 115 98 92 99 89 115 174 203 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.8 18.2 18.5 18.8 19.1 19.8 20.5 21.1 21.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 104.6 105.0 105.3 105.6 105.9 106.3 106.8 107.2 107.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 13 9 8 7 6 5 3 6 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 536 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. -5. -2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 17.8 104.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032015 CARLOS 06/17/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.41 3.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 2.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.2 30.9 to 7.7 0.59 4.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.17 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 380.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.49 -2.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 4.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.48 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.06 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.51 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.7% 18.0% 16.2% 12.4% 9.3% 11.2% 10.9% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.7% 6.2% 5.6% 4.2% 3.1% 3.8% 3.7% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032015 CARLOS 06/17/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##