* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CARLOS EP032015 06/16/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 82 83 82 81 77 73 69 66 62 60 59 59 59 60 62 64 V (KT) LAND 80 82 83 82 81 77 73 69 66 62 60 59 59 59 60 62 64 V (KT) LGEM 80 83 84 83 81 77 73 70 67 65 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 8 7 8 10 8 1 4 4 10 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 -3 -5 -2 -1 -1 2 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 19 17 10 359 3 54 241 116 163 171 204 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.4 28.1 27.9 27.7 27.5 27.2 27.1 27.1 27.5 28.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 149 146 143 141 138 135 132 131 131 135 144 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.8 -52.0 -52.3 -52.2 -52.1 -52.2 -52.2 -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 8 8 9 9 9 8 7 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 56 56 56 53 56 56 59 59 62 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -25 -18 -6 -18 -24 13 8 35 30 34 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -23 -2 0 -5 -3 3 -19 18 4 9 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 116 122 113 106 107 110 117 100 105 123 138 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.6 17.9 18.2 18.5 18.7 19.2 19.5 19.9 20.3 20.8 21.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 104.2 104.6 105.0 105.4 105.7 106.1 106.4 106.5 106.7 106.8 106.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 5 4 3 2 2 2 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 18 13 9 7 6 5 4 3 3 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 539 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. -0. -4. -8. -11. -14. -15. -16. -17. -17. -18. -20. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 2. 1. -3. -7. -11. -14. -18. -20. -21. -21. -21. -20. -18. -16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 17.6 104.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032015 CARLOS 06/16/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 63.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.30 2.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 5.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.7 30.9 to 7.7 0.62 4.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.14 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 426.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.43 -2.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 4.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 3.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.08 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.56 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 18.5% 23.1% 19.6% 15.6% 11.1% 13.6% 11.2% 0.0% Logistic: 8.0% 8.3% 7.7% 4.1% 4.3% 1.7% 0.7% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 8.9% 11.0% 9.1% 6.6% 5.1% 5.1% 4.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032015 CARLOS 06/16/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##