* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BILL AL022015 06/16/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 53 54 55 57 60 63 64 64 59 57 56 55 55 54 54 53 V (KT) LAND 50 41 35 32 29 28 27 27 27 28 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 V (KT) LGEM 50 43 36 32 29 28 27 27 27 28 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 13 16 13 13 20 17 24 18 22 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 1 0 -2 7 5 5 2 7 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 291 259 269 277 244 244 245 233 260 256 259 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.2 28.1 27.6 29.0 28.8 28.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 150 148 149 148 145 139 137 131 152 150 139 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 131 128 128 127 124 116 113 108 127 125 115 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.2 -52.0 -52.4 -52.7 -52.3 -53.5 -53.1 -54.3 -54.3 -54.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 10 12 10 10 14 8 12 2 8 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 69 66 60 61 58 59 56 50 49 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 13 13 13 14 16 16 15 11 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 16 15 3 -39 -20 -16 -30 -61 -76 -77 -22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 20 30 36 43 35 70 65 55 1 8 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 8 7 3 -3 26 7 17 16 50 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 44 -53 -151 -246 -345 -500 -597 -678 -752 -840 -930 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.2 29.0 29.7 30.6 31.5 33.4 34.8 35.8 36.9 38.2 39.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 96.0 96.6 97.1 97.3 97.5 97.0 95.9 94.5 92.4 89.5 86.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 9 12 13 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 11 15 4 3 3 3 3 2 4 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 644 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. -1. -3. -10. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 5. 7. 10. 13. 14. 14. 9. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 28.2 96.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022015 BILL 06/16/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.1 45.1 to 6.7 0.68 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.04 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.45 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.3 27.0 to 140.8 0.44 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.29 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.24 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 148.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.77 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.8% 15.8% 10.6% 8.2% 7.4% 10.3% 9.9% 0.0% Logistic: 3.6% 9.5% 5.3% 2.5% 0.8% 2.6% 0.8% 0.1% Bayesian: 3.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.3% 8.5% 5.3% 3.6% 2.7% 4.3% 3.5% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022015 BILL 06/16/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022015 BILL 06/16/2015 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 41 35 32 29 28 27 27 27 28 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 18HR AGO 50 49 43 40 37 36 35 35 35 36 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 12HR AGO 50 47 46 43 40 39 38 38 38 39 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 37 36 35 35 35 36 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT