* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CARLOS EP032015 06/16/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 65 66 66 67 67 67 65 64 63 62 61 61 61 63 64 67 V (KT) LAND 65 65 66 66 67 67 67 65 64 63 62 61 61 61 63 64 67 V (KT) LGEM 65 66 67 67 67 66 65 65 66 66 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 9 7 7 8 8 5 6 5 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -3 -3 -4 -4 -3 0 2 -1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 17 20 1 345 4 331 338 243 231 225 220 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.0 28.7 28.4 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.2 28.7 29.0 29.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 152 149 146 143 142 142 142 143 148 151 156 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.8 -52.1 -52.1 -51.9 -52.2 -52.0 -52.2 -51.9 -52.5 -52.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 8 9 7 10 7 10 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 63 63 59 57 59 57 61 61 65 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 4 3 4 3 4 3 3 3 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -5 -8 -15 -19 -17 -12 1 18 38 55 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -6 -4 -20 -16 -7 -20 5 -6 3 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 0 3 1 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 113 111 109 111 98 71 49 57 99 102 97 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.4 17.6 18.0 18.3 19.0 19.9 20.6 21.2 21.7 22.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 103.3 103.7 104.1 104.5 104.9 105.5 105.9 106.2 106.4 106.6 106.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 3 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 25 19 14 11 9 8 8 10 14 18 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 549 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 17.1 103.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032015 CARLOS 06/16/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.45 4.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.3 30.9 to 7.7 0.72 5.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -10.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.12 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 242.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.64 -4.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 5.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.60 3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.13 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.60 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.8% 24.1% 19.7% 15.3% 11.2% 14.1% 12.8% 10.0% Logistic: 2.7% 7.2% 4.1% 1.8% 3.0% 1.2% 0.2% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.8% 10.8% 7.9% 5.7% 4.8% 5.1% 4.3% 3.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032015 CARLOS 06/16/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##