* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CARLOS EP032015 06/15/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 60 61 62 64 67 67 67 66 64 62 61 62 62 63 65 67 V (KT) LAND 60 60 61 62 64 67 67 67 66 64 62 61 62 62 63 65 67 V (KT) LGEM 60 60 60 60 61 62 63 65 67 70 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 9 12 9 6 7 5 3 6 12 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -2 -2 -3 -4 -4 -2 0 5 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 1 2 18 23 10 17 327 52 215 209 214 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.4 29.2 29.0 28.7 28.3 28.0 28.1 28.3 28.9 29.4 29.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 157 155 152 149 145 142 143 145 151 156 157 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.8 -51.7 -51.9 -52.2 -51.9 -52.3 -52.1 -52.5 -52.1 -52.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 9 8 7 9 7 10 7 10 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 62 62 61 61 57 59 57 62 60 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -12 -9 2 0 -17 -14 -14 4 20 48 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 0 1 0 -1 -24 -2 -2 10 -7 8 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 1 1 0 0 -1 -1 0 0 5 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 117 100 94 95 99 93 52 15 71 88 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.9 17.1 17.3 17.6 17.8 18.4 19.3 20.3 21.2 22.0 22.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 102.3 102.8 103.3 103.7 104.2 105.0 105.5 105.8 106.1 106.5 106.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 38 32 25 19 13 8 8 10 15 22 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 559 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 7. 7. 6. 4. 2. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 16.9 102.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032015 CARLOS 06/15/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.54 5.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.8 30.9 to 7.7 0.65 4.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.15 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 236.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.65 -4.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 5.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 3.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.23 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.57 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.5% 26.4% 20.9% 16.0% 12.1% 15.3% 14.2% 11.7% Logistic: 2.2% 9.0% 4.2% 2.3% 2.5% 1.3% 0.6% 0.8% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.3% 12.1% 8.4% 6.1% 4.9% 5.5% 4.9% 4.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032015 CARLOS 06/15/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##