* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CARLOS EP032015 06/14/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 61 60 60 62 65 66 65 64 62 60 59 57 57 58 59 61 V (KT) LAND 65 61 60 60 62 65 66 52 37 31 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 65 61 59 58 58 59 60 49 36 30 28 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 11 11 8 4 8 4 1 7 6 12 12 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 0 0 -2 -2 2 -1 3 1 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 42 64 66 65 44 21 12 16 236 226 216 217 226 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.5 29.0 28.4 28.0 27.9 28.1 27.9 27.2 26.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 155 157 158 159 158 152 146 142 141 143 141 134 124 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.3 -51.0 -51.2 -51.5 -51.1 -51.7 -51.6 -51.9 -51.8 -52.2 -52.1 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 10 9 7 9 7 8 6 9 7 9 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 67 67 65 64 65 63 62 64 64 68 64 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 3 1 5 9 0 7 -6 -2 5 11 27 38 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 50 52 43 19 28 23 2 -10 -17 0 -7 14 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -2 2 0 1 1 -1 -2 -2 -2 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 121 111 100 93 93 60 31 -24 -65 -15 -33 -37 -89 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.1 16.4 16.8 17.1 17.6 18.4 19.3 20.2 21.0 21.9 22.9 23.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 100.3 100.7 101.2 101.7 102.2 103.2 103.9 104.4 104.8 105.1 105.3 105.6 105.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 5 6 6 6 5 6 5 4 5 5 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 37 34 37 42 41 25 14 8 7 8 8 4 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 544 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -5. -5. -3. 0. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -7. -6. -4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 15.8 100.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032015 CARLOS 06/14/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.54 5.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 1.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.3 30.9 to 7.7 0.55 3.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.37 2.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 206.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.68 -4.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 5.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.64 3.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 38.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.35 1.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.43 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.6% 24.7% 19.4% 14.4% 11.4% 14.4% 13.5% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 4.4% 2.0% 0.9% 0.6% 0.5% 0.2% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 4.1% 9.8% 7.2% 5.1% 4.0% 5.0% 4.6% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032015 CARLOS 06/14/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##