* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CARLOS EP032015 06/14/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 68 64 61 60 61 59 59 59 57 56 56 57 59 60 62 65 V (KT) LAND 70 68 64 61 60 61 59 59 40 40 40 39 31 29 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 70 67 63 61 59 57 58 59 41 41 43 44 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 11 10 12 9 7 10 2 6 11 15 18 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 -2 -1 0 -2 0 0 -2 2 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 31 44 55 62 67 41 64 113 163 203 195 215 208 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.3 28.7 28.2 28.2 28.7 29.0 28.6 27.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 155 157 158 159 158 156 150 145 144 150 153 148 135 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.5 -51.1 -50.9 -51.2 -51.2 -51.5 -51.7 -51.7 -51.9 -52.0 -52.3 -52.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 9 10 8 8 7 8 7 8 7 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 67 66 65 64 64 62 61 62 60 61 58 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 9 5 4 3 2 2 3 2 2 2 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 29 10 4 10 10 -9 1 -14 -3 -13 20 27 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 46 46 49 40 13 8 9 -7 -13 -15 2 -14 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 -1 0 1 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 137 124 111 106 110 89 43 5 -27 15 37 8 -52 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.6 15.9 16.2 16.5 16.7 17.2 18.0 19.0 20.0 21.0 22.0 23.0 24.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 100.2 100.6 101.0 101.5 101.9 102.8 103.6 104.4 105.1 105.6 106.0 106.3 106.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 38 35 35 40 44 35 19 10 9 13 19 14 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 568 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -3. -7. -8. -9. -12. -15. -17. -18. -17. -17. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -9. -10. -9. -11. -11. -11. -13. -13. -14. -13. -11. -10. -8. -5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 15.6 100.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032015 CARLOS 06/14/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.50 4.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 2.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.7 30.9 to 7.7 0.48 3.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.37 2.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 222.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.66 -4.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 4.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.58 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 38.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.35 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.33 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.9% 22.3% 18.2% 13.8% 10.7% 13.2% 11.5% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 2.9% 1.3% 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 4.3% 8.8% 6.6% 4.8% 3.7% 4.6% 4.0% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032015 CARLOS 06/14/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##