* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CARLOS EP032015 06/13/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 69 70 70 69 68 68 65 62 56 52 53 54 53 53 52 51 V (KT) LAND 65 69 70 70 69 68 68 65 62 56 52 53 54 53 53 52 41 V (KT) LGEM 65 69 71 71 69 67 65 65 61 58 55 55 54 52 49 45 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 14 11 10 9 7 6 7 2 3 5 6 15 15 18 11 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 2 1 1 0 -1 -4 -3 0 0 0 0 4 6 14 13 SHEAR DIR 36 40 38 38 45 45 37 56 82 104 234 159 201 207 221 211 222 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.1 28.2 28.1 28.3 28.3 27.9 27.8 27.6 27.4 26.0 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 156 157 157 157 158 160 154 145 144 146 145 141 140 138 136 122 113 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.6 -51.1 -51.4 -51.6 -50.8 -51.4 -50.9 -51.5 -51.0 -51.6 -51.6 -52.0 -51.9 -52.3 -52.2 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 9 10 8 8 9 7 8 6 8 6 7 4 7 3 6 3 700-500 MB RH 72 67 69 67 66 66 62 61 59 57 56 55 56 53 53 51 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 20 17 16 14 10 10 8 7 4 2 2 3 3 4 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR 21 21 37 36 25 28 9 8 -2 1 -16 -16 -12 -2 24 8 31 200 MB DIV 65 58 42 38 39 70 26 37 1 6 -22 -9 -4 -3 -3 -1 -10 700-850 TADV 2 2 1 2 0 3 2 0 0 0 0 1 3 7 10 11 7 LAND (KM) 213 204 195 187 180 180 154 140 108 78 74 151 195 102 43 33 -30 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.0 15.2 15.5 15.7 16.2 16.7 17.4 18.3 19.3 20.3 21.0 21.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 100.1 100.4 100.6 101.0 101.4 102.3 103.3 104.3 105.1 105.8 106.4 107.0 107.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 42 40 39 37 38 45 28 12 8 10 9 8 7 7 5 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 520 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -13. -15. -20. -23. -21. -18. -17. -14. -13. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. -0. -3. -9. -13. -12. -11. -12. -12. -13. -14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 14.8 100.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032015 CARLOS 06/13/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.2 27.0 to 147.4 0.54 5.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 6.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.4 30.9 to 7.7 0.33 2.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.42 3.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 182.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.71 -5.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 6.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.64 3.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 39.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.36 1.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.18 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 2.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 19.8% 29.2% 24.5% 20.1% 12.8% 18.0% 15.2% 0.0% Logistic: 5.9% 19.4% 10.1% 5.7% 2.4% 4.3% 2.7% 1.8% Bayesian: 1.7% 28.1% 10.9% 3.8% 5.1% 18.3% 8.9% 0.4% Consensus: 9.1% 25.6% 15.2% 9.9% 6.8% 13.5% 8.9% 0.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032015 CARLOS 06/13/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##