* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CARLOS EP032015 06/13/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 57 60 61 61 62 62 65 62 59 56 55 56 55 55 53 51 V (KT) LAND 55 57 60 61 61 62 62 65 62 59 56 55 56 55 55 53 38 V (KT) LGEM 55 57 58 58 57 55 55 57 57 56 54 52 52 50 49 45 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 13 14 13 11 9 7 3 2 2 6 9 14 18 16 13 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 6 3 3 3 1 -1 -1 -2 0 1 -1 3 1 5 6 8 SHEAR DIR 54 49 42 56 50 74 47 27 36 257 201 238 215 240 234 254 283 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.7 29.4 28.5 28.1 28.2 28.4 28.0 28.1 27.9 26.7 25.2 23.0 POT. INT. (KT) 155 156 157 157 157 160 157 148 144 145 147 143 144 142 129 113 90 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.1 -51.8 -51.1 -51.3 -51.1 -51.2 -51.3 -51.4 -51.3 -51.2 -51.4 -51.7 -51.9 -51.9 -52.0 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 10 9 8 8 7 7 7 6 7 5 5 3 4 2 700-500 MB RH 76 72 67 67 67 66 63 61 60 58 56 56 56 54 53 49 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 18 16 14 11 9 10 8 7 5 4 4 4 5 5 6 850 MB ENV VOR 48 29 22 39 37 15 17 -2 9 -3 -6 -19 -2 -15 31 3 27 200 MB DIV 73 55 47 44 39 38 26 33 27 -8 -11 -29 0 -14 4 -3 -5 700-850 TADV 2 1 0 0 0 0 3 1 0 0 0 -1 2 4 5 4 4 LAND (KM) 224 210 196 192 187 189 167 146 128 77 68 155 165 68 38 0 -23 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 14.9 15.1 15.3 15.5 15.9 16.5 17.1 17.9 18.9 20.0 21.2 22.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 100.1 100.3 100.4 100.8 101.1 102.0 102.9 103.9 104.7 105.5 106.2 107.0 107.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 1 2 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 6 8 7 7 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 42 41 40 38 37 42 37 16 9 9 10 9 9 7 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 80/ 1 CX,CY: 1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 555 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 14. 12. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. -2. -4. -7. -7. -11. -13. -16. -16. -14. -13. -10. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 10. 7. 4. 1. -0. 1. -0. 0. -2. -4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 14.7 100.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032015 CARLOS 06/13/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.62 5.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.9 30.9 to 7.7 0.17 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.44 3.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 147.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.75 -4.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 5.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.76 3.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 39.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.37 1.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.24 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 2.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.6% 28.1% 20.7% 15.5% 11.1% 16.0% 15.6% 12.8% Logistic: 5.2% 18.9% 8.3% 4.0% 1.2% 3.7% 1.2% 1.4% Bayesian: 0.9% 22.5% 6.9% 2.1% 1.0% 11.8% 11.8% 1.7% Consensus: 6.2% 23.1% 12.0% 7.2% 4.4% 10.5% 9.5% 5.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032015 CARLOS 06/13/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##