* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CARLOS EP032015 06/12/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 55 61 66 70 77 79 79 78 79 76 71 65 62 60 56 55 V (KT) LAND 50 55 61 66 70 77 79 79 78 79 76 71 65 62 60 56 48 V (KT) LGEM 50 56 61 65 69 74 75 74 74 75 73 66 61 58 56 52 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 15 9 11 14 15 13 8 11 3 2 3 7 11 13 13 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 10 12 10 11 13 9 4 0 0 0 5 2 1 0 0 1 SHEAR DIR 26 25 37 56 42 52 40 42 20 6 58 114 97 141 130 153 143 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.2 28.6 28.1 27.9 27.7 27.0 26.0 26.2 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 157 156 156 156 156 157 159 159 155 149 144 141 139 132 122 124 117 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.5 -51.6 -51.3 -51.0 -51.5 -50.8 -51.6 -50.8 -51.2 -50.4 -50.9 -50.8 -51.7 -51.1 -51.5 -51.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 8 9 10 9 10 8 10 7 8 5 7 5 6 5 6 700-500 MB RH 72 72 73 72 73 72 72 72 69 66 63 63 62 61 58 56 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 21 21 22 24 22 21 21 22 20 17 13 13 13 10 10 850 MB ENV VOR 43 44 37 46 59 49 69 42 42 27 26 8 10 0 10 13 11 200 MB DIV 105 81 72 64 73 47 45 51 51 32 44 7 14 -12 6 0 17 700-850 TADV 0 3 3 3 6 3 2 4 4 3 0 0 -2 0 0 0 3 LAND (KM) 267 256 246 235 224 207 209 216 194 192 197 195 211 226 277 126 -30 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.6 14.7 14.9 15.0 15.3 15.5 15.8 16.3 16.9 17.6 18.4 19.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 100.4 100.5 100.6 100.7 100.8 101.1 101.6 102.3 103.2 104.4 105.5 106.5 107.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 4 6 7 6 6 4 5 6 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 45 44 43 42 41 38 33 28 21 14 9 8 7 3 0 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 652 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 44.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 11. 14. 15. 16. 17. 18. 18. 18. 17. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -5. -4. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 5. 6. 4. -0. -5. -5. -4. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 8. 12. 11. 6. 1. -1. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 16. 20. 27. 29. 29. 28. 29. 26. 21. 15. 12. 10. 6. 5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 14.4 100.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032015 CARLOS 06/12/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.66 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 31.7 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 79.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.58 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 89.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.81 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.55 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 43.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.40 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.43 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 24.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 7.8% 28.9% 16.3% 7.5% 0.9% 8.2% 1.1% 2.9% Bayesian: 6.4% 30.9% 17.8% 7.5% 0.0% 15.8% 17.2% 0.1% Consensus: 4.7% 28.2% 11.3% 5.0% 0.3% 8.0% 6.1% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032015 CARLOS 06/12/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##