* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * THREE EP032015 06/11/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 39 43 52 61 68 68 69 70 74 72 71 67 62 60 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 39 43 52 61 68 68 69 70 74 72 71 67 62 60 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 34 35 39 44 47 48 49 53 57 59 58 54 49 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 13 14 14 15 12 16 15 14 9 10 6 5 4 11 13 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 5 6 7 9 6 2 4 0 0 0 5 8 1 2 SHEAR DIR 57 61 58 45 47 52 45 49 43 35 35 36 97 175 100 115 129 SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.7 29.8 29.9 30.0 29.4 28.6 28.3 28.0 27.7 26.8 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 157 155 154 155 155 156 158 159 162 164 157 149 145 142 139 130 114 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.2 -51.8 -51.4 -51.9 -51.9 -51.7 -51.7 -51.7 -51.5 -51.3 -51.1 -51.0 -51.0 -50.9 -51.3 -51.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 10 9 10 9 8 8 7 7 6 5 700-500 MB RH 76 76 74 75 75 74 73 71 69 62 60 57 56 54 53 53 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 12 13 14 15 17 17 15 15 15 18 17 16 13 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR 61 47 35 44 45 47 59 53 53 36 57 32 39 8 26 14 21 200 MB DIV 75 90 104 113 109 77 52 57 42 27 30 25 32 12 2 -27 0 700-850 TADV -1 0 -1 -1 -1 1 3 3 2 3 3 0 1 -1 -1 -4 0 LAND (KM) 391 375 358 328 298 248 189 144 115 119 123 128 152 169 224 284 343 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.3 13.5 13.8 14.1 14.5 15.0 15.4 15.9 16.4 16.9 17.4 17.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 100.0 100.2 100.4 100.4 100.4 100.2 100.0 99.9 100.4 101.6 102.9 104.1 105.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 3 3 3 3 3 2 3 5 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 41 41 41 43 44 47 50 52 44 29 20 12 10 8 6 2 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 447 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 29.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 6. 11. 18. 24. 28. 31. 33. 35. 37. 39. 39. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 2. 1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 4. 5. 5. 8. 6. 4. 1. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 13. 22. 31. 38. 38. 39. 40. 44. 42. 41. 37. 32. 30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.0 100.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032015 THREE 06/11/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.82 6.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.6 30.9 to 7.7 0.23 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 98.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.68 4.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 37.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.87 -5.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.34 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 42.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.39 1.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.62 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.0% 18.7% 15.0% 11.1% 0.0% 0.0% 13.7% 15.4% Logistic: 2.1% 17.3% 7.2% 2.9% 1.1% 9.7% 12.1% 14.6% Bayesian: 0.3% 12.3% 5.8% 1.5% 0.6% 3.3% 2.7% 2.1% Consensus: 3.5% 16.1% 9.3% 5.2% 0.6% 4.3% 9.5% 10.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032015 THREE 06/11/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##