* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * THREE EP032015 06/11/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 35 40 47 53 66 75 80 80 75 69 65 57 52 50 46 44 V (KT) LAND 30 35 40 47 53 66 75 80 80 75 69 65 57 52 50 46 44 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 36 39 42 50 58 64 65 64 63 60 55 52 50 48 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 15 15 14 14 15 15 12 12 9 13 13 12 12 21 21 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 1 6 7 12 10 6 5 3 1 1 4 3 -4 1 SHEAR DIR 48 53 58 58 47 60 52 53 54 51 74 88 84 90 92 121 120 SST (C) 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.6 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.3 28.6 28.3 28.2 28.0 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 161 159 157 157 156 157 157 158 160 161 162 156 148 145 144 142 136 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.0 -52.2 -51.8 -51.4 -52.1 -51.3 -51.9 -51.2 -51.5 -50.7 -51.1 -50.5 -51.4 -51.4 -51.7 -51.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 8 9 8 10 9 10 9 11 8 9 6 7 5 5 700-500 MB RH 76 75 75 73 74 75 73 73 72 66 63 60 59 59 55 55 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 12 13 14 17 18 20 19 17 14 12 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 57 57 43 36 44 45 67 55 67 51 65 57 40 13 2 6 10 200 MB DIV 80 81 97 112 124 106 74 69 102 62 37 47 58 13 5 -17 3 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -1 0 0 1 4 1 3 0 0 -1 0 1 4 2 2 LAND (KM) 407 385 365 342 319 255 196 141 104 88 95 89 122 143 160 213 270 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 13.0 13.3 13.6 13.8 14.3 14.8 15.3 15.8 16.3 16.8 17.3 17.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 99.4 99.8 100.1 100.1 100.2 99.9 99.7 99.6 99.9 100.7 101.8 103.2 104.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 5 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 5 7 7 5 4 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 45 47 47 50 50 55 56 57 52 36 25 18 12 10 9 9 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 426 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 51.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 24. 28. 31. 33. 36. 38. 40. 41. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. 6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 9. 6. 2. -1. -9. -12. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. RI POTENTIAL 1. 4. 6. 9. 14. 13. 7. 2. -2. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 17. 23. 36. 45. 50. 50. 45. 39. 35. 27. 22. 20. 16. 14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.6 99.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032015 THREE 06/11/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.84 8.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.2 30.9 to 7.7 0.29 2.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 98.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.68 4.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 23.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.88 -5.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.77 3.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 47.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.45 1.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.52 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 2.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.1% 32.6% 20.7% 15.2% 0.0% 0.0% 17.1% 0.0% Logistic: 7.5% 43.2% 21.8% 11.3% 6.9% 31.4% 26.8% 27.9% Bayesian: 1.8% 42.3% 32.2% 12.7% 2.1% 32.0% 37.7% 4.5% Consensus: 7.1% 39.3% 24.9% 13.1% 3.0% 21.1% 27.2% 10.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032015 THREE 06/11/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##