* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BLANCA EP022015 06/07/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 97 87 78 68 46 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 105 97 87 78 68 46 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 105 96 85 75 65 45 29 28 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 18 15 18 20 18 21 24 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 1 2 4 8 7 9 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 108 118 133 148 156 194 214 217 218 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.4 26.6 25.8 25.5 24.6 22.4 22.2 21.3 23.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 138 130 122 119 109 86 84 74 101 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -51.2 -51.3 -51.1 -50.9 -51.2 -50.7 -50.5 -50.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.0 0.5 0.3 1.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 4 4 1 2 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 59 62 59 56 58 57 55 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 34 32 29 28 27 20 14 8 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 61 67 65 52 47 42 27 14 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 18 -25 -22 -8 18 10 52 39 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 2 0 -4 -3 -8 -5 -4 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 456 360 272 189 149 6 -29 -29 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.8 19.7 20.6 21.7 22.7 24.9 26.9 28.7 30.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 110.2 110.6 110.9 111.2 111.6 112.3 113.0 113.8 114.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 11 11 11 10 10 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 9 CX,CY: -3/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 437 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -6. -10. -21. -32. -43. -51. -57. -63. -67. -70. -73. -76. -80. -84. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -11. -10. -12. -13. -14. -16. -18. -21. -22. -22. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -10. -10. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -3. -4. -6. -10. -19. -32. -41. -41. -41. -38. -35. -32. -29. -26. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -8. -18. -27. -37. -59. -79. -99.-114.-120.-125.-127.-128.-129.-131.-132.-133. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 18.8 110.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP022015 BLANCA 06/07/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 18.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 28.8 30.9 to 7.7 0.09 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.15 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 455.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.40 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.82 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.64 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022015 BLANCA 06/07/15 00 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##