* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BLANCA EP022015 06/05/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 79 79 79 79 72 62 45 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 80 79 79 79 79 72 62 45 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 80 79 78 76 73 63 50 38 28 27 23 25 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 8 11 11 9 9 10 17 15 12 14 14 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 6 5 6 8 10 5 6 4 10 7 12 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 103 112 101 98 115 110 138 171 193 197 181 169 187 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.3 28.4 28.1 27.8 26.3 25.2 23.6 23.2 23.3 23.7 23.8 23.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 149 147 148 145 142 126 115 98 93 93 97 97 93 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -50.6 -50.6 -50.9 -50.7 -50.9 -51.0 -51.0 -51.3 -51.3 -51.2 -51.2 -51.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 5 4 3 3 2 2 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 68 67 64 63 58 57 55 50 45 43 40 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 34 34 35 36 37 33 27 21 16 9 6 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 88 89 80 61 61 65 56 58 38 24 3 8 -13 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 69 74 93 51 16 -16 -43 -24 -21 -10 7 31 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 2 0 2 3 2 0 -2 -1 -1 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 537 500 484 468 456 345 171 81 -8 2 -41 -50 -38 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.8 16.5 17.3 18.1 19.8 21.5 23.2 24.7 25.9 26.8 27.3 27.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 107.2 107.8 108.4 108.9 109.3 110.1 110.7 111.2 111.7 112.2 112.6 112.8 113.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 6 4 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 34 29 30 12 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 475 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 15.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. -0. -5. -11. -17. -22. -26. -29. -33. -35. -38. -40. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 1. 2. -1. -7. -16. -25. -35. -38. -41. -37. -33. -30. -27. -25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -1. -8. -18. -35. -51. -68. -76. -84. -85. -84. -84. -85. -84. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 15.0 107.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP022015 BLANCA 06/05/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 66.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.33 2.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 2.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.8 30.9 to 7.7 0.22 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.49 2.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 266.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.61 -3.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 3.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.64 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.19 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.44 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.2% 15.7% 12.9% 9.5% 7.1% 6.2% 3.9% 0.0% Logistic: 7.2% 13.1% 4.0% 1.9% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.7% 2.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.4% 10.4% 5.9% 3.9% 2.5% 2.1% 1.3% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022015 BLANCA 06/05/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##