* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BLANCA EP022015 06/05/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 84 84 83 82 76 63 47 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 85 84 84 83 82 76 63 47 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 85 84 83 81 79 70 54 40 29 26 26 26 27 27 27 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 5 7 14 15 9 14 16 17 14 15 18 17 15 20 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 9 8 5 4 9 6 4 5 5 5 9 9 0 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 100 113 111 103 105 107 127 155 189 206 188 193 195 191 219 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.3 28.5 28.4 28.2 27.9 27.0 25.3 24.2 23.3 23.9 23.9 22.4 21.8 21.8 21.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 158 149 148 146 143 133 116 104 94 100 99 83 75 74 71 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.3 -50.7 -50.9 -51.0 -50.6 -51.3 -51.0 -51.4 -51.4 -51.3 -51.2 -51.5 -51.4 -51.6 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 -0.3 -0.1 0.3 0.5 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 5 4 4 2 3 1 3 2 4 2 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 69 67 67 66 62 58 56 54 52 49 44 41 35 30 27 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 36 35 34 35 36 35 29 23 18 12 6 3 2 3 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 83 92 93 80 63 56 52 58 45 33 9 -2 0 -4 -1 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 55 61 76 98 57 3 -51 -32 -13 5 8 23 27 12 -2 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 0 0 -1 0 -1 -3 -2 -2 -2 -4 -3 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 527 495 469 461 464 401 215 84 9 -13 -50 -65 -49 -49 -39 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.7 15.5 16.2 17.0 17.7 19.3 21.0 22.8 24.4 25.8 26.9 27.6 28.0 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 106.6 107.3 107.9 108.5 109.1 109.8 110.4 110.9 111.5 112.0 112.6 113.2 113.5 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 5 3 1 1 0 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 59 34 36 21 8 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 9 CX,CY: -4/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 477 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 2. -1. -6. -12. -19. -24. -28. -33. -38. -43. -48. -51. -54. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -7. -16. -26. -35. -41. -44. -40. -36. -33. -30. -27. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. -3. -9. -21. -38. -56. -71. -83. -92. -96. -97.-101.-103.-103. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 14.7 106.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP022015 BLANCA 06/05/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 63.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.31 2.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.1 30.9 to 7.7 0.21 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.53 3.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 304.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.57 -3.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 3.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 31.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.29 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.55 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.3% 17.7% 14.6% 11.0% 8.2% 7.7% 4.5% 0.0% Logistic: 4.8% 5.4% 1.6% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 4.2% 8.3% 3.6% 1.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.8% 10.5% 6.6% 4.5% 2.8% 2.6% 1.5% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022015 BLANCA 06/05/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##