* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BLANCA EP022015 06/05/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 87 88 90 91 88 78 63 41 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 85 87 88 90 91 88 78 63 41 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 85 86 86 84 82 74 64 50 38 26 27 25 26 26 20 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 9 5 7 13 11 19 18 21 16 13 22 22 19 21 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 8 12 11 9 8 4 1 3 3 10 4 8 4 5 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 118 110 101 100 101 134 128 137 165 195 170 184 197 210 214 N/A N/A SST (C) 30.0 29.3 28.6 28.4 28.3 27.7 26.2 25.3 23.7 23.7 23.3 23.1 21.3 20.0 18.9 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 165 158 150 148 147 141 125 115 99 99 94 91 72 58 58 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.5 -51.0 -50.3 -50.6 -50.8 -51.1 -51.0 -51.0 -51.3 -51.0 -51.0 -51.2 -51.3 -51.4 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 7 7 6 5 5 3 3 2 3 2 2 2 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 70 70 68 66 62 57 52 48 44 39 37 34 30 24 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 34 36 35 36 36 36 32 27 20 14 7 6 3 4 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 87 86 97 93 78 61 64 55 59 34 28 -4 -2 -11 0 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 76 39 58 101 91 6 -36 -61 -32 -2 6 32 26 10 24 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -2 0 -1 -2 2 0 0 0 0 -2 0 0 -1 -8 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 561 528 497 473 471 447 333 153 74 -21 4 -63 -41 20 52 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.7 15.4 16.1 16.8 18.4 19.9 21.6 23.2 24.8 26.1 27.2 27.9 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 105.9 106.6 107.2 107.9 108.5 109.4 110.0 110.5 111.1 111.6 112.3 112.9 113.6 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 7 5 4 3 3 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 89 59 36 35 25 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 9 CX,CY: -4/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 479 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 29.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -4. -10. -16. -21. -26. -30. -35. -41. -47. -50. -53. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -11. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -2. -8. -20. -28. -37. -37. -37. -33. -30. -28. -25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 6. 6. 3. -7. -22. -44. -62. -78. -86. -95. -99.-106.-108.-109. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 13.9 105.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP022015 BLANCA 06/05/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.35 3.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 28.0 30.9 to 7.7 0.13 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.55 3.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 260.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.62 -3.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 3.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.77 3.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 48.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.46 1.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.49 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.1% 20.1% 15.7% 11.7% 9.1% 9.1% 5.7% 0.0% Logistic: 7.4% 12.9% 4.4% 2.2% 0.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 6.6% 19.7% 11.2% 6.9% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 8.7% 17.6% 10.4% 6.9% 3.2% 3.2% 1.9% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022015 BLANCA 06/05/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##