* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BLANCA EP022015 06/05/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 85 88 92 95 94 91 78 59 42 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 85 85 88 92 95 94 91 78 59 42 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 85 84 84 85 85 81 74 61 47 36 24 20 18 23 20 16 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 6 5 6 10 13 11 11 14 13 8 10 15 16 17 23 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 5 7 10 9 5 7 5 5 7 8 6 6 7 3 5 2 SHEAR DIR 105 106 112 112 105 134 132 143 140 174 179 161 183 194 194 215 212 SST (C) 30.1 30.1 29.6 29.0 28.6 27.7 27.3 25.6 24.9 22.9 22.1 21.3 21.0 20.6 20.2 19.6 19.2 POT. INT. (KT) 165 166 161 155 150 141 136 118 111 90 82 73 69 64 59 57 56 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -51.4 -51.3 -50.5 -50.3 -50.9 -50.5 -51.0 -50.7 -51.4 -51.2 -51.3 -51.1 -51.4 -51.4 -51.4 -51.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 5 3 4 2 3 1 3 2 4 700-500 MB RH 74 72 71 71 70 68 60 56 50 47 43 41 39 36 32 25 23 MODEL VTX (KT) 35 34 37 39 40 38 38 33 27 21 13 8 4 4 3 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 83 84 83 96 96 67 54 61 67 57 28 17 -17 -7 -15 8 3 200 MB DIV 109 80 68 95 94 25 13 -36 -33 -14 3 -16 13 14 30 18 2 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 -1 2 4 2 -1 1 -2 -1 -1 0 -4 -4 -6 LAND (KM) 592 557 527 495 469 453 424 267 132 72 -12 32 -40 -2 39 39 35 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 14.0 14.7 15.5 16.2 17.6 19.1 20.5 21.9 23.4 24.9 26.2 27.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 105.4 106.0 106.6 107.2 107.9 108.9 109.6 110.1 110.7 111.3 112.1 112.9 113.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 9 10 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 6 5 3 3 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 91 87 61 39 34 7 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 535 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 36.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 2. -3. -8. -13. -19. -24. -29. -35. -40. -46. -53. -59. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 3. 4. 2. 3. -3. -12. -20. -30. -35. -36. -33. -31. -28. -26. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 8. 4. 1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. 3. 7. 10. 9. 6. -7. -26. -43. -62. -75. -85. -90. -96.-104.-112. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 13.3 105.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP022015 BLANCA 06/05/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.39 3.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 1.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.4 30.9 to 7.7 0.28 1.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 89.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.63 4.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 180.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.71 -4.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 3.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.79 3.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 62.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.59 1.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.51 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.2% 22.5% 16.7% 12.1% 10.1% 10.1% 7.3% 0.0% Logistic: 3.2% 10.5% 3.1% 1.3% 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.5% 8.4% 7.9% 4.7% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.3% 13.8% 9.2% 6.1% 3.5% 3.6% 2.4% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022015 BLANCA 06/05/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##