* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANDRES EP012015 06/04/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 39 31 25 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 39 31 25 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 41 36 31 26 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 23 28 29 24 25 18 26 28 25 27 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 14 8 1 -3 -3 1 4 1 10 9 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 248 246 247 240 238 226 202 197 168 153 143 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 22.9 22.9 22.9 22.8 22.8 22.8 22.9 23.3 24.0 24.8 25.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 87 86 86 86 86 87 88 93 101 109 119 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.2 -52.1 -52.1 -51.9 -51.7 -51.1 -51.0 -51.0 -51.4 -51.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 3 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 46 42 39 38 32 30 28 28 29 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 19 17 16 15 12 11 8 7 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 42 28 26 21 24 8 12 4 13 26 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -5 -8 -16 -19 -34 -57 -42 -16 -25 -33 -18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 2 3 0 -2 -1 -5 -7 -13 -12 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1321 1313 1305 1301 1297 1306 1310 1312 1252 1190 1140 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.2 20.2 20.2 20.1 20.0 19.6 19.2 18.7 18.3 17.8 17.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 125.0 124.9 124.8 124.7 124.5 124.2 123.8 123.2 122.2 121.0 119.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 2 1 1 2 2 3 3 5 6 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 3 CX,CY: 1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 670 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -8. -12. -15. -18. -20. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -9. -14. -18. -22. -23. -24. -25. -26. -28. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. -11. -11. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -6. -7. -10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -3. -4. -6. -10. -15. -19. -23. -25. -23. -21. -19. -17. -16. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -4. -1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -6. -14. -20. -26. -37. -48. -60. -70. -77. -82. -86. -88. -90. -92. -94. -97. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 20.2 125.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP012015 ANDRES 06/04/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 41.2 27.0 to 147.4 0.12 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 37.2 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -16.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.09 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 355.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.51 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.51 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 15.6 62.3 to 0.0 0.75 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.78 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012015 ANDRES 06/04/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##