* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BLANCA EP022015 06/04/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 120 123 125 130 129 127 119 113 107 87 68 50 37 24 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 120 123 125 130 129 127 119 113 107 87 68 50 37 24 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 120 122 124 125 126 120 108 93 76 60 44 32 23 16 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 2 2 7 8 9 15 11 10 19 20 17 11 12 13 16 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 3 4 5 5 4 4 8 3 4 9 7 10 11 7 0 SHEAR DIR 120 138 60 73 68 108 105 120 112 117 124 170 198 165 161 176 203 SST (C) 30.2 30.1 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.0 28.3 27.3 27.3 25.3 24.1 22.3 21.7 21.1 20.5 20.4 20.4 POT. INT. (KT) 163 163 163 163 162 154 147 137 136 115 103 83 76 70 64 62 62 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.8 -51.8 -51.0 -50.7 -50.8 -50.3 -50.8 -50.2 -50.8 -50.6 -51.2 -51.0 -50.8 -50.8 -51.0 -50.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.4 0.8 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 8 8 9 8 8 6 6 5 5 3 3 2 3 2 3 700-500 MB RH 80 77 77 72 72 69 67 64 60 57 57 58 53 46 40 33 31 MODEL VTX (KT) 32 35 34 40 38 42 39 39 40 33 27 21 16 10 6 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 50 57 64 76 79 95 94 73 63 58 68 59 25 20 1 6 -8 200 MB DIV 112 91 91 105 116 71 78 26 28 -41 -28 -28 24 1 13 3 -3 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 -1 0 0 1 2 1 -3 -3 -2 -3 -1 -2 -4 -5 LAND (KM) 687 667 649 619 595 541 483 451 378 226 122 78 18 60 57 2 -21 LAT (DEG N) 12.1 12.4 12.6 13.1 13.6 14.9 16.3 17.9 19.5 20.9 22.3 23.6 24.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 104.7 104.9 105.1 105.6 106.0 107.1 108.2 109.1 109.8 110.4 111.0 111.6 112.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 5 7 8 8 9 9 8 8 8 6 5 4 5 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 94 92 89 80 72 34 18 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):200/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 516 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. 0. -0. -1. -7. -16. -26. -34. -42. -49. -56. -61. -67. -73. -81. -88. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 5. 4. 7. 7. 8. 10. 1. -7. -15. -19. -24. -26. -24. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 4. 4. 3. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 10. 9. 7. -1. -7. -13. -33. -52. -70. -83. -96.-107.-113.-119. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 120. LAT, LON: 12.1 104.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP022015 BLANCA 06/04/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 42.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.13 1.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.5 30.9 to 7.7 0.62 4.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 103.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.71 4.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 146.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.75 -4.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 120.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.16 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.81 3.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 85.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.82 2.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.54 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.6% 23.4% 17.5% 13.5% 11.4% 11.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 15.3% 21.2% 8.7% 4.5% 1.4% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 31.8% 4.4% 5.0% 3.4% 0.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 20.5% 16.4% 10.4% 7.1% 4.4% 4.1% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022015 BLANCA 06/04/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##