* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANDRES EP012015 06/03/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 42 34 28 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 42 34 28 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 42 37 32 28 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 16 20 23 28 25 25 29 31 25 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 6 12 9 -2 -1 3 1 7 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 261 263 262 249 247 231 223 197 200 183 161 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 23.5 23.5 23.4 23.3 23.3 23.2 22.9 22.7 23.0 23.3 23.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 95 94 92 90 91 90 88 86 89 93 99 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.2 -52.2 -52.2 -52.3 -52.1 -51.8 -51.1 -50.6 -50.5 -50.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.2 0.3 0.6 1.0 0.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 1 2 1 2 2 2 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 53 49 47 46 39 36 28 26 26 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 22 21 21 21 18 17 14 12 10 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 34 27 29 45 36 32 31 20 32 18 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -16 -8 -2 -13 -13 -8 -40 -43 5 -30 -13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 9 4 1 1 4 0 0 -9 -6 -11 -10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1396 1389 1382 1374 1367 1335 1305 1277 1254 1216 1167 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.4 19.7 19.9 20.0 20.0 20.0 19.8 19.6 19.3 19.0 18.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 125.2 125.4 125.5 125.5 125.4 125.0 124.4 123.8 123.1 122.3 121.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 3 2 1 1 2 3 3 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 762 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. -11. -12. -15. -19. -22. -26. -29. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -9. -14. -17. -20. -22. -23. -24. -25. -26. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE -4. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. -11. -12. -13. -15. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -12. -16. -19. -21. -20. -18. -17. -15. -14. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -8. -16. -22. -28. -36. -44. -56. -67. -74. -81. -84. -87. -91. -93. -97.-101. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 19.4 125.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP012015 ANDRES 06/03/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 42.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.13 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.03 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 35.0 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -10.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.12 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 346.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.52 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.52 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 10.4 62.3 to 0.0 0.83 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.40 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012015 ANDRES 06/03/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##