* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BLANCA EP022015 06/03/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 86 99 111 119 133 135 130 113 95 80 59 45 31 21 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 86 99 111 119 133 135 130 113 95 80 59 45 29 28 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 86 98 107 114 128 135 126 105 82 65 50 37 28 26 26 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 3 2 2 4 8 7 12 11 11 14 19 13 7 14 14 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 -2 -1 -2 1 10 12 9 7 6 -1 9 7 8 6 7 SHEAR DIR 358 69 94 192 173 74 110 132 121 137 130 151 172 175 147 189 188 SST (C) 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.0 30.0 29.2 27.8 26.7 25.7 25.5 24.2 23.1 22.5 21.4 20.8 POT. INT. (KT) 161 161 160 161 162 163 164 156 142 130 120 117 102 91 84 73 66 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.2 -52.1 -51.5 -51.3 -51.5 -50.6 -50.8 -50.6 -51.4 -50.6 -51.2 -51.2 -51.3 -51.1 -51.3 -51.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 8 8 9 7 7 6 6 4 4 2 4 2 4 700-500 MB RH 85 83 84 82 80 75 70 68 69 64 60 56 53 45 37 29 26 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 28 32 34 34 38 38 40 36 32 29 22 17 10 6 2 4 850 MB ENV VOR 9 27 41 54 61 67 94 92 95 58 56 43 64 40 32 20 3 200 MB DIV 124 124 167 163 110 102 103 56 57 -15 -30 -20 7 1 12 16 -2 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 -2 0 0 0 4 -3 -1 -2 -1 -1 2 0 LAND (KM) 613 620 627 621 616 582 509 433 372 346 276 102 14 -3 -6 3 80 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 12.8 12.7 12.8 12.8 13.3 14.5 15.9 17.4 18.9 20.5 22.0 23.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 104.7 104.8 104.8 104.8 104.8 105.2 106.0 106.9 107.8 108.6 109.3 109.8 110.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 1 1 0 0 2 5 8 9 8 8 8 7 5 4 4 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 96 95 95 95 95 89 70 33 10 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):235/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 598 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 82.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 3. 2. 0. -2. -4. -6. -8. -11. -15. -20. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 4. 7. 7. 7. 5. 3. 2. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 4. 7. 7. 10. 12. 18. 16. 9. 5. -4. -10. -16. -18. -20. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 4. 5. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. RI POTENTIAL 3. 6. 11. 16. 25. 23. 13. 3. -3. -9. -13. -15. -16. -15. -15. -14. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 11. 24. 36. 44. 58. 60. 55. 38. 20. 5. -16. -30. -44. -54. -64. -69. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 12.8 104.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP022015 BLANCA 06/03/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.49 15.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 20.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 11.9 30.9 to 7.7 0.82 20.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 137.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.89 20.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : -42.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.96 -21.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 15.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.86 14.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 95.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.92 10.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 2.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.51 0.9 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 92% is 14.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 100% is 8.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 99% is 11.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 98% is 16.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 97% is 23.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 86% is 12.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 57% is 9.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 91.9% 100.0% 99.0% 98.0% 97.0% 85.9% 57.1% 12.9% Logistic: 83.2% 94.0% 88.9% 83.8% 69.1% 70.8% 14.6% 7.3% Bayesian: 97.1% 98.7% 99.3% 98.9% 97.7% 98.3% 88.5% 0.2% Consensus: 90.7% 97.6% 95.7% 93.6% 87.9% 85.0% 53.4% 6.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022015 BLANCA 06/03/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##