* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANDRES EP012015 06/02/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 67 59 51 43 31 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 67 59 51 43 31 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 66 58 51 45 35 27 20 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 8 9 14 18 23 28 26 17 25 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 7 4 4 4 9 2 1 6 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 258 263 241 251 258 245 249 240 223 203 200 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 23.9 23.5 23.4 23.4 23.4 23.2 22.8 22.7 23.0 23.2 23.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 101 96 94 93 93 90 87 86 89 91 98 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.8 -52.0 -52.3 -52.3 -52.3 -52.1 -51.7 -51.1 -50.4 -50.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.0 -0.2 0.2 0.6 1.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 62 61 60 57 52 46 38 30 26 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 25 23 22 20 19 18 15 13 10 9 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 67 61 45 30 28 42 16 26 15 32 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -33 -13 -2 -7 -15 -15 -38 -8 -42 -7 -21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 16 14 11 8 4 1 0 -4 -7 -9 -10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1383 1387 1384 1374 1366 1328 1267 1208 1159 1121 1062 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.5 19.0 19.3 19.6 19.9 20.1 20.1 20.1 19.9 19.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 123.5 124.1 124.6 124.8 125.0 124.8 124.2 123.4 122.7 121.9 121.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 5 4 3 2 3 3 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 637 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -8. -11. -16. -21. -26. -30. -33. -37. -40. -44. -48. -51. -55. -58. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. -15. -15. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. -12. -13. -14. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -3. -5. -5. -9. -14. -21. -22. -25. -24. -22. -20. -18. -16. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -8. -16. -24. -32. -44. -58. -69. -80. -88. -94. -97. -99.-101.-103.-106.-109. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 18.0 123.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP012015 ANDRES 06/02/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 20.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.9 30.9 to 7.7 0.17 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -14.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.10 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 404.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.46 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.81 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.30 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012015 ANDRES 06/02/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##