* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BLANCA EP022015 06/02/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 63 73 84 94 111 123 127 123 109 97 82 64 49 34 22 N/A V (KT) LAND 55 63 73 84 94 111 123 127 123 109 97 82 64 49 34 23 N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 61 68 76 84 103 122 130 121 103 83 65 49 37 29 21 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 6 4 4 3 2 9 11 13 17 14 16 18 16 10 17 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 0 -1 -2 0 2 9 9 4 4 3 -2 3 7 5 3 SHEAR DIR 353 355 10 21 27 175 107 79 104 108 132 123 133 159 172 138 160 SST (C) 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.0 29.9 29.1 27.9 26.6 25.8 25.0 24.0 22.1 22.3 22.1 POT. INT. (KT) 162 161 161 161 161 162 163 163 155 143 129 120 112 101 81 83 81 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.6 -52.0 -52.3 -52.5 -51.4 -51.6 -50.7 -51.0 -50.7 -51.1 -50.8 -51.3 -51.3 -51.4 -51.3 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 6 6 6 7 7 8 7 7 6 6 4 4 2 3 2 700-500 MB RH 86 84 84 84 86 81 74 71 71 68 61 59 54 51 45 36 29 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 20 22 23 25 30 37 40 41 38 36 32 25 19 11 6 2 850 MB ENV VOR -2 9 17 19 35 64 64 95 87 82 62 72 61 77 53 33 11 200 MB DIV 99 103 113 108 130 142 95 110 100 45 3 -11 -23 -11 -3 23 23 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 0 1 1 -3 -2 -2 -2 -6 -2 LAND (KM) 578 585 592 604 616 620 587 533 467 415 396 325 168 73 34 -18 6 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.1 13.0 12.9 12.8 12.8 13.3 14.3 15.6 17.0 18.5 20.0 21.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 104.6 104.7 104.7 104.8 104.8 104.9 105.3 106.1 107.0 108.0 108.9 109.6 110.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 1 1 1 1 2 5 7 8 9 8 8 8 6 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 96 95 96 95 95 94 87 67 33 12 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 586 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 82.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 13. 13. 12. 11. 8. 4. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. 0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 18. 27. 32. 28. 25. 19. 8. 1. -6. -10. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 5. 6. 4. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. RI POTENTIAL 3. 6. 11. 16. 25. 23. 13. 3. -3. -9. -13. -15. -16. -15. -15. -14. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 8. 18. 29. 39. 56. 68. 72. 68. 54. 42. 27. 9. -6. -21. -33. -47. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 13.1 104.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP022015 BLANCA 06/02/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.66 20.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 15.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.4 30.9 to 7.7 0.76 18.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 110.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.75 17.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : -52.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.97 -21.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 18.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.97 16.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 95.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.92 10.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 2.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.54 1.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 65% is 10.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 100% is 8.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 99% is 11.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 98% is 15.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 97% is 23.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 99% is 14.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 87% is 14.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 54% is 11.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 65.3% 100.0% 99.0% 98.0% 97.0% 99.4% 86.6% 54.2% Logistic: 69.3% 93.7% 84.3% 77.8% 61.5% 83.4% 42.8% 24.2% Bayesian: 85.7% 97.6% 98.6% 97.5% 93.8% 98.5% 96.4% 6.2% Consensus: 73.4% 97.1% 94.0% 91.1% 84.1% 93.8% 75.3% 28.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022015 BLANCA 06/02/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##