* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BLANCA EP022015 06/01/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 47 56 64 74 93 106 116 119 115 104 95 79 72 65 58 51 V (KT) LAND 40 47 56 64 74 93 106 116 119 115 104 95 79 72 65 58 51 V (KT) LGEM 40 45 50 54 59 72 93 115 123 118 102 83 65 55 48 43 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 12 9 4 2 1 3 5 14 16 16 24 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -3 0 0 -1 0 -1 -1 5 3 8 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 303 312 324 342 14 37 173 125 100 86 89 101 88 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.1 30.1 30.0 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.7 28.7 27.2 25.9 25.0 24.3 23.8 22.4 POT. INT. (KT) 160 161 161 162 161 160 160 161 162 161 151 135 121 111 104 99 84 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.3 -52.5 -52.6 -52.3 -52.2 -51.9 -51.6 -51.3 -51.6 -51.0 -51.5 -51.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 8 8 7 7 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 87 87 86 86 86 83 80 75 71 70 72 70 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 14 15 17 19 23 29 34 39 41 38 38 32 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -19 -18 -18 -11 0 23 41 62 77 80 53 55 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 118 139 121 120 112 107 131 107 123 110 80 47 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 0 -2 0 0 3 2 0 0 -4 -1 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 535 535 536 541 546 571 589 589 562 514 474 457 456 324 206 154 124 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.4 13.4 13.4 13.4 13.2 13.1 13.1 13.6 14.7 15.9 17.4 18.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 103.9 104.1 104.3 104.5 104.6 104.7 104.9 104.9 105.4 106.4 107.6 108.8 109.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 1 2 2 1 1 1 1 2 5 8 9 9 8 6 6 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 86 89 93 94 95 95 93 93 88 58 25 5 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 568 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 82.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 10. 15. 20. 23. 25. 26. 27. 27. 26. 24. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 16. 27. 37. 39. 35. 32. 22. 20. 18. 17. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 5. 4. 1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 5. 6. 4. 2. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -9. -12. RI POTENTIAL 3. 6. 11. 16. 25. 23. 13. 3. -3. -9. -13. -15. -16. -15. -15. -14. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 7. 16. 24. 34. 53. 66. 76. 79. 75. 65. 55. 39. 32. 25. 18. 11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 13.3 103.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP022015 BLANCA 06/01/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.78 22.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 14.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.9 30.9 to 7.7 0.65 14.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 122.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.81 17.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : -75.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.99 -20.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 9.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.94 14.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 91.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.88 9.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 2.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.53 0.9 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 41% is 6.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 96% is 7.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 84% is 9.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 74% is 11.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 72% is 17.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 76% is 11.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 93% is 15.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 65% is 13.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 41.2% 96.2% 84.3% 73.7% 71.8% 75.5% 93.3% 65.0% Logistic: 49.3% 92.6% 82.8% 75.4% 62.8% 88.5% 68.7% 68.0% Bayesian: 41.6% 87.6% 92.3% 77.9% 74.2% 98.6% 98.0% 51.2% Consensus: 44.1% 92.1% 86.5% 75.6% 69.6% 87.5% 86.6% 61.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022015 BLANCA 06/01/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##