* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BLANCA EP022015 06/01/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 47 54 63 72 87 97 104 110 111 105 91 79 66 54 41 30 V (KT) LAND 40 47 54 63 72 87 97 104 110 111 105 91 79 66 54 41 30 V (KT) LGEM 40 45 49 53 57 68 84 100 112 116 105 86 67 53 42 32 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 12 10 7 4 1 3 5 9 15 20 21 20 23 17 15 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -5 -2 0 -1 1 -1 -4 2 5 5 11 7 6 6 5 SHEAR DIR 303 300 292 307 342 5 215 197 134 81 91 83 97 99 105 110 92 SST (C) 30.0 30.0 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.6 28.8 27.8 26.3 25.4 24.9 24.5 23.9 POT. INT. (KT) 161 162 162 162 161 160 160 160 160 159 152 142 125 116 110 106 99 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.9 -52.4 -52.8 -53.1 -52.0 -52.6 -51.5 -51.7 -51.0 -51.6 -51.1 -51.9 -51.4 -51.6 -51.4 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 8 9 7 7 6 7 5 4 2 700-500 MB RH 88 86 86 84 84 83 82 76 70 68 70 72 67 57 45 34 27 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 11 11 13 15 18 23 29 36 40 40 35 32 27 23 17 13 850 MB ENV VOR -32 -24 -23 -20 -13 10 32 42 61 77 52 38 41 49 65 64 72 200 MB DIV 109 100 123 125 100 117 102 109 131 111 84 81 17 9 -20 13 -6 700-850 TADV 1 1 0 -1 0 1 4 0 0 -1 -4 -3 1 0 -4 -3 0 LAND (KM) 535 526 518 523 530 558 577 597 597 563 522 486 504 450 382 356 364 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.5 13.6 13.6 13.6 13.4 13.3 13.2 13.4 14.1 15.2 16.7 17.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 103.9 104.2 104.4 104.6 104.7 104.9 105.1 105.3 105.7 106.3 107.3 108.6 109.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 3 6 9 9 7 7 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 86 90 93 95 95 94 91 88 80 63 27 13 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 586 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 82.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 10. 15. 20. 22. 25. 26. 27. 28. 27. 26. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 7. 13. 24. 36. 42. 42. 33. 26. 19. 13. 6. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 3. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 5. 6. 4. 2. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -9. -12. RI POTENTIAL 3. 6. 11. 16. 25. 23. 13. 3. -3. -9. -13. -15. -16. -15. -15. -14. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 7. 14. 23. 32. 47. 57. 64. 70. 71. 65. 51. 39. 26. 14. 1. -10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 13.3 103.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP022015 BLANCA 06/01/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.79 20.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 13.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.4 30.9 to 7.7 0.63 12.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 111.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.75 14.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : -53.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.97 -18.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 8.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.86 12.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 91.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.88 8.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 2.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.48 0.8 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 32% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 86% is 6.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 75% is 8.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 65% is 10.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 63% is 15.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 66% is 9.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 87% is 14.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 64% is 13.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 32.4% 85.7% 75.0% 64.7% 62.9% 66.2% 86.9% 64.2% Logistic: 29.9% 83.2% 64.1% 51.7% 46.8% 76.5% 69.6% 71.9% Bayesian: 22.6% 82.1% 82.0% 69.2% 40.4% 97.4% 99.2% 73.7% Consensus: 28.3% 83.7% 73.7% 61.8% 50.0% 80.0% 85.2% 69.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022015 BLANCA 06/01/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##