* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANDRES EP012015 05/29/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 70 75 80 85 88 87 82 73 68 59 50 44 38 33 30 26 V (KT) LAND 65 70 75 80 85 88 87 82 73 68 59 50 44 38 33 30 26 V (KT) LGEM 65 69 72 74 75 74 71 68 64 57 50 44 39 35 32 29 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 16 15 12 12 7 7 9 11 10 6 4 3 7 8 12 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -1 -2 0 0 0 4 3 0 0 0 -1 0 3 3 5 SHEAR DIR 6 359 356 359 335 255 239 248 255 261 299 335 313 266 309 305 313 SST (C) 29.1 28.4 27.6 26.9 26.3 26.3 26.8 26.8 25.8 25.5 25.0 24.8 24.6 24.3 23.9 23.8 24.1 POT. INT. (KT) 154 147 139 132 125 125 131 131 120 117 112 110 107 104 100 98 101 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.1 -51.7 -51.8 -51.7 -50.9 -51.2 -51.0 -51.1 -51.2 -51.3 -51.6 -51.9 -52.2 -52.7 -52.6 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.3 1.1 1.1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 5 5 4 5 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 77 74 69 67 66 67 66 60 60 57 54 52 47 42 44 49 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 28 29 30 31 34 34 35 35 36 33 30 27 23 20 18 15 850 MB ENV VOR 43 51 50 39 46 65 72 79 88 88 85 69 52 55 40 36 35 200 MB DIV 108 100 76 80 83 92 68 36 37 42 -13 1 3 -12 3 2 16 700-850 TADV -5 -4 0 0 5 6 4 6 8 10 2 8 1 1 3 2 5 LAND (KM) 1244 1215 1190 1170 1154 1137 1168 1217 1283 1371 1465 1557 1652 1758 1857 1958 2058 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 13.1 13.6 14.1 14.6 15.6 16.3 16.8 17.3 17.8 18.1 18.4 18.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 114.6 115.1 115.6 116.1 116.6 117.6 118.9 120.3 121.7 123.2 124.7 126.3 127.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 7 7 7 5 6 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 27 18 10 4 1 1 4 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 581 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 54.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. -0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -11. -14. -17. -20. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 9. 12. 13. 14. 11. 5. 1. -3. -5. -7. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 7. 10. 15. 14. 8. 2. -2. -5. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -8. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 15. 20. 23. 22. 17. 8. 3. -6. -15. -21. -27. -32. -35. -39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 12.6 114.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP012015 ANDRES 05/29/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.39 4.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.9 30.9 to 7.7 0.47 3.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 89.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.64 4.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 176.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.71 -5.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 6.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.84 4.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.09 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.41 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 2.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 20.0% 36.9% 24.0% 16.9% 12.1% 16.8% 14.5% 9.6% Logistic: 12.0% 39.5% 11.9% 9.6% 7.6% 7.8% 3.7% 0.3% Bayesian: 4.6% 9.6% 4.3% 2.2% 0.8% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 12.2% 28.7% 13.4% 9.5% 6.8% 8.4% 6.1% 3.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012015 ANDRES 05/29/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##