* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANDRES EP012015 05/29/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 64 69 73 78 83 82 78 73 65 57 51 44 40 36 32 28 V (KT) LAND 60 64 69 73 78 83 82 78 73 65 57 51 44 40 36 32 28 V (KT) LGEM 60 62 64 66 68 69 67 63 57 51 46 41 37 33 30 27 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 17 15 16 14 10 9 8 11 14 12 7 9 4 7 8 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -3 0 0 2 2 8 7 0 0 2 2 6 3 4 0 SHEAR DIR 22 10 9 358 349 297 284 282 286 299 304 292 332 305 306 288 294 SST (C) 29.3 28.8 28.1 27.2 26.6 26.1 26.5 27.1 25.9 25.7 25.1 24.8 24.9 24.6 24.3 24.1 24.4 POT. INT. (KT) 157 151 144 134 128 123 127 134 121 119 113 110 110 107 104 102 105 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.8 -51.4 -51.9 -51.9 -51.2 -51.4 -50.7 -51.5 -51.2 -51.9 -51.6 -52.1 -52.2 -52.6 -52.5 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.6 1.0 1.2 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 700-500 MB RH 76 75 71 67 64 65 63 60 60 58 55 49 47 44 39 36 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 27 29 30 31 35 35 36 37 36 34 33 30 27 24 21 20 850 MB ENV VOR 40 45 48 46 35 52 52 74 70 85 76 75 55 38 34 26 46 200 MB DIV 87 81 69 65 62 95 68 59 6 23 8 -26 -13 -8 -15 0 14 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -2 0 1 11 3 4 3 3 0 2 1 2 3 3 2 LAND (KM) 1267 1236 1210 1192 1179 1149 1166 1186 1236 1319 1418 1506 1595 1698 1803 1926 2048 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.8 13.3 13.8 14.2 15.2 16.0 16.6 17.2 17.7 18.1 18.3 18.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 114.4 114.9 115.4 115.9 116.4 117.3 118.4 119.6 121.0 122.5 124.0 125.5 126.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 31 23 14 6 2 0 2 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 532 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 50.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -13. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 13. 16. 15. 12. 10. 5. 2. -1. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 9. 14. 13. 7. 2. -2. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 13. 18. 23. 22. 18. 13. 5. -3. -9. -16. -20. -24. -28. -32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 12.3 114.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP012015 ANDRES 05/29/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.46 4.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.1 30.9 to 7.7 0.38 2.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 72.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.55 3.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 175.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.71 -4.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 5.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.86 4.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.12 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.45 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 2.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.4% 32.8% 21.4% 15.8% 11.5% 15.5% 13.4% 9.5% Logistic: 7.1% 30.3% 7.1% 5.0% 4.3% 2.8% 1.3% 0.2% Bayesian: 1.4% 4.9% 1.4% 0.6% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 7.6% 22.7% 9.9% 7.1% 5.5% 6.2% 4.9% 3.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012015 ANDRES 05/29/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##