* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANA AL012015 05/09/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 51 50 49 45 41 36 33 33 36 44 31 29 28 28 29 V (KT) LAND 50 51 51 50 49 45 35 30 30 30 33 42 28 26 26 25 27 V (KT) LGEM 50 52 53 52 51 47 37 31 34 39 47 55 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 19 24 21 20 18 16 12 17 7 15 37 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -4 -3 0 -2 -1 -2 -3 -2 2 17 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 333 341 344 351 348 10 2 31 360 7 245 259 265 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 23.9 24.4 24.5 24.1 23.2 21.2 19.4 18.2 14.5 15.1 11.9 5.1 2.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 93 97 98 95 90 80 75 74 70 73 72 70 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 79 81 82 81 77 71 68 68 67 70 71 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -58.4 -58.5 -58.8 -58.9 -58.7 -59.3 -58.9 -59.5 -59.1 -59.2 -58.7 -57.5 -55.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 -0.4 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -1.5 -1.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 6 7 4 8 5 4 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 43 44 46 49 51 55 60 63 67 67 59 62 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 19 19 17 17 14 13 11 9 10 12 21 17 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -17 -33 -46 -43 -57 -97 -91 -94 -61 -16 47 46 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 4 -20 -23 -7 -24 -3 -3 2 21 11 56 28 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 2 3 5 2 3 5 7 21 17 -1 144 202 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 233 207 183 147 112 43 -30 -20 95 199 214 220 562 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.9 32.1 32.3 32.6 32.9 33.5 34.4 35.7 37.4 39.6 42.1 44.8 47.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 77.3 77.5 77.6 77.8 77.9 78.3 78.0 77.0 74.6 70.5 63.7 54.5 45.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 3 3 3 4 6 10 16 24 32 35 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 2 CX,CY: 1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 677 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -14. -16. -18. -21. -24. -27. -28. -30. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -5. -12. -15. -17. -18. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 12. 14. 17. 19. 21. 23. 25. 27. 28. 28. 28. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -10. -14. -18. -18. -18. -6. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. -0. -1. -5. -9. -14. -17. -17. -14. -6. -19. -21. -22. -22. -21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 31.9 77.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012015 ANA 05/09/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.5 45.1 to 6.7 0.48 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.33 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 30.0 27.0 to 140.8 0.03 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -14.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.08 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.31 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 280.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.64 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 98.3 104.5 to 0.0 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.8% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% Bayesian: 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012015 ANA 05/09/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012015 ANA 05/09/2015 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 51 51 50 49 45 35 30 30 30 33 42 28 26 26 25 27 18HR AGO 50 49 49 48 47 43 33 28 28 28 31 40 26 24 24 23 25 12HR AGO 50 47 46 45 44 40 30 25 25 25 28 37 23 21 21 20 22 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 39 35 25 20 20 20 23 32 18 16 16 15 17 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT