* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANA AL012015 05/08/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 42 43 44 47 46 43 42 39 40 39 40 39 39 38 40 V (KT) LAND 40 40 42 43 44 47 46 43 33 29 28 29 30 29 29 28 30 V (KT) LGEM 40 41 42 43 44 46 46 44 34 29 28 36 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type SUBT TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SUBT SUBT EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 4 10 14 16 17 23 13 19 9 7 20 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 1 -2 -1 -1 -3 -3 -2 -3 0 -2 4 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 339 17 322 341 338 344 342 356 356 346 337 247 253 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.6 24.9 24.9 25.0 25.1 25.0 23.0 21.2 19.5 17.7 16.7 10.9 9.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 97 99 99 100 101 101 88 80 76 73 73 67 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 81 83 83 83 84 85 76 71 68 68 68 65 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -57.8 -58.2 -58.1 -58.4 -58.3 -58.7 -58.9 -59.0 -59.3 -59.3 -59.1 -58.4 -56.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.4 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 0.0 -0.1 -0.8 -0.2 -1.0 -0.4 -0.1 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 6 6 5 7 5 7 5 8 4 4 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 41 42 42 45 46 50 51 57 59 63 66 52 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 20 20 19 19 17 14 13 12 12 12 16 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -10 -10 -3 -11 -24 -33 -74 -72 -82 -67 -68 9 170 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -11 -32 -12 1 -21 -6 -10 -11 10 11 27 54 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 1 -1 0 0 15 5 44 -47 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 233 221 210 200 189 139 73 15 -36 -92 -18 89 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.5 31.6 31.7 31.8 31.8 32.1 32.6 33.2 34.1 35.5 37.4 39.8 42.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 77.7 77.8 77.8 77.9 78.0 78.4 78.8 79.1 78.9 78.1 76.1 73.1 70.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 1 1 1 1 2 3 3 4 6 10 14 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 683 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -8. -11. -14. -15. -16. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -5. -8. -9. -9. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 11. 14. 16. 19. 20. 22. 24. 26. 26. 26. 26. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -10. -12. -15. -16. -17. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 3. 4. 7. 6. 3. 2. -1. 0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 31.5 77.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012015 ANA 05/08/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.8 45.1 to 6.7 0.71 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.61 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 42.9 27.0 to 140.8 0.14 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -15.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.49 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 237.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.68 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 86.3 104.5 to 0.0 0.17 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.8% 11.8% 8.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 2.1% 1.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 4.6% 3.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012015 ANA 05/08/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012015 ANA 05/08/2015 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 40 42 43 44 47 46 43 33 29 28 29 30 29 29 28 30 18HR AGO 40 39 41 42 43 46 45 42 32 28 27 28 29 28 28 27 29 12HR AGO 40 37 36 37 38 41 40 37 27 23 22 23 24 23 23 22 24 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 31 34 33 30 20 16 15 16 17 16 16 15 17 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT