* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * VANCE EP212014 11/04/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 82 73 61 51 36 25 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 90 82 73 61 51 36 24 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 90 83 73 63 53 39 27 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 37 32 36 43 49 56 59 54 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 12 16 17 13 4 1 -5 -5 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 218 212 208 210 216 227 243 257 266 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 28.0 28.1 28.6 29.0 28.6 27.4 27.1 27.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 148 144 145 151 155 150 136 131 130 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.9 -52.4 -51.9 -52.0 -51.9 -52.1 -52.4 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 5 4 3 2 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 74 67 62 56 49 47 41 38 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 21 20 16 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 51 60 68 83 98 86 19 7 -16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 112 86 98 54 34 4 -16 -32 -14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 23 16 12 9 9 7 17 15 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 556 456 359 263 192 90 -15 -35 -73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.9 18.8 19.7 20.7 21.7 23.6 24.8 25.3 25.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 110.3 109.9 109.5 109.1 108.6 108.0 107.8 107.9 108.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 11 11 8 4 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 13 10 10 17 35 32 7 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 11 CX,CY: 5/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 645 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -6. -11. -16. -19. -21. -22. -23. -23. -24. -25. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -5. -10. -16. -22. -30. -35. -38. -43. -47. -52. -58. -63. -68. -71. -72. -71. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -4. -6. -6. -8. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -8. -17. -29. -39. -54. -65. -73. -81. -88. -94. -99.-104.-109.-113.-117.-118. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 17.9 110.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP212014 VANCE 11/04/14 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 58.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.26 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 62.1 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 76.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.57 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 295.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.58 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.57 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.14 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.77 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212014 VANCE 11/04/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##