* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * VANCE EP212014 11/04/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 95 89 78 68 58 39 27 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 95 89 78 68 58 39 27 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 95 90 81 70 60 43 33 25 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 31 39 38 43 46 52 55 58 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 13 13 11 6 10 0 2 -9 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 206 222 223 214 213 219 233 261 271 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.3 28.0 28.0 28.3 29.1 29.0 28.1 27.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 151 147 144 144 147 155 153 143 134 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -53.0 -52.9 -52.6 -52.0 -51.9 -51.7 -52.3 -52.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 3 4 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 79 75 65 59 52 44 41 35 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 20 17 17 15 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 28 49 55 64 85 85 44 5 -14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 156 123 71 76 52 21 -21 -44 -29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 15 24 17 11 1 -9 5 11 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 663 564 456 356 263 129 97 23 -30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.9 17.9 18.8 19.7 20.6 22.4 23.8 24.7 25.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 110.8 110.5 110.2 109.8 109.4 108.6 108.3 108.2 108.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 10 10 8 6 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 22 14 10 9 12 36 35 16 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 11 CX,CY: 1/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 653 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -0. -3. -7. -12. -17. -21. -23. -24. -24. -24. -25. -26. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -5. -12. -18. -24. -33. -37. -40. -43. -46. -50. -55. -60. -65. -68. -67. -66. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -3. -4. -5. -9. -11. -14. -16. -16. -16. -15. -14. -13. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -6. -17. -27. -37. -56. -68. -77. -86. -92. -97.-103.-108.-113.-117.-119.-121. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 16.9 110.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP212014 VANCE 11/04/14 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 51.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.21 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 60.2 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 95.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.67 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 246.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.64 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.72 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.11 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.64 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212014 VANCE 11/04/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##