* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * VANCE EP212014 11/03/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 92 90 87 80 62 48 34 25 21 18 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 90 92 90 87 80 62 48 34 25 21 18 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 90 91 89 83 74 56 41 30 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 20 24 27 30 36 45 49 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 5 12 15 14 10 6 5 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 235 214 206 212 220 231 236 231 243 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.0 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.4 28.1 28.9 29.1 28.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 155 153 152 151 148 145 153 155 144 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.2 -52.3 -52.2 -52.5 -52.4 -51.9 -51.8 -51.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.6 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 73 72 75 77 71 61 48 46 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 23 22 22 21 16 13 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -7 -3 7 32 51 59 92 72 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 103 161 151 142 110 68 29 7 -26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 10 19 18 24 18 6 3 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 801 754 718 652 580 391 256 165 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.0 15.0 15.9 16.8 17.7 19.4 21.0 22.5 24.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 110.0 110.4 110.7 110.6 110.5 109.6 108.6 107.9 107.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 30 27 23 16 9 26 39 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 12 CX,CY: -7/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 677 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. -1. -5. -9. -12. -15. -17. -18. -17. -17. -17. -18. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -9. -12. -18. -22. -25. -29. -31. -33. -37. -40. -43. -45. -44. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -6. -5. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -7. -17. -20. -20. -20. -19. -17. -16. -14. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 0. -3. -10. -28. -42. -56. -65. -69. -72. -75. -77. -81. -84. -86. -89. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 14.0 110.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP212014 VANCE 11/03/14 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 61.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.29 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 41.6 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 133.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.86 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 126.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.77 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.57 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.89 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.23 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.24 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.1% 1.6% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.6% 3.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 1.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212014 VANCE 11/03/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##