* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * VANCE EP212014 11/02/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 50 57 63 70 80 81 68 55 39 27 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 50 57 63 70 80 81 68 55 39 27 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 49 53 57 62 69 69 58 46 35 27 23 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 3 5 6 6 6 17 29 32 37 38 43 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -3 -3 -1 10 18 16 8 2 6 1 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 18 341 336 301 306 225 195 230 230 249 246 257 265 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 29.0 29.4 29.8 29.7 29.1 28.9 28.3 27.9 28.7 29.1 29.1 29.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 152 156 160 164 162 155 153 147 143 150 153 151 151 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.9 -52.9 -52.6 -52.1 -52.6 -51.9 -52.6 -51.9 -52.1 -52.0 -52.4 -52.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 7 6 5 6 4 5 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 72 74 73 74 74 74 66 51 41 38 36 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 18 19 20 21 21 16 13 9 6 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 3 -5 -12 -12 -9 4 24 37 64 54 25 -19 -30 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 36 36 58 91 134 161 145 62 35 -15 -10 -36 -43 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -5 -2 0 1 6 14 18 2 3 2 -2 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 914 903 911 902 896 830 707 546 394 281 242 233 203 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.6 11.1 11.8 12.5 14.1 15.8 17.5 19.1 20.4 21.3 21.6 21.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 104.9 106.2 107.4 108.4 109.4 110.5 110.5 109.9 109.2 108.4 107.9 107.9 107.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 12 12 11 9 9 8 8 6 3 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 13 12 18 34 45 39 33 17 8 23 52 52 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 571 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 60.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 16. 17. 19. 21. 22. 24. 25. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -2. -7. -12. -18. -21. -22. -23. -25. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. -0. -4. -11. -14. -14. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 8. 11. 17. 16. 9. 2. -2. -6. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -9. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 12. 19. 25. 35. 36. 23. 10. -6. -18. -26. -31. -32. -33. -37. -40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 10.0 104.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP212014 VANCE 11/02/14 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.72 12.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 7.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.4 30.9 to 7.7 0.75 9.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 71.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.54 6.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 48.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.86 -10.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 6.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.77 7.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.22 1.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.51 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 59% is 4.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 43% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 56% is 9.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.6% 59.2% 42.9% 27.2% 21.2% 24.6% 56.0% 0.0% Logistic: 41.0% 82.2% 67.0% 56.5% 37.8% 68.7% 30.5% 4.2% Bayesian: 2.4% 58.0% 43.2% 25.9% 9.7% 56.4% 52.7% 0.0% Consensus: 19.4% 66.4% 51.0% 36.5% 22.9% 49.9% 46.4% 1.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212014 VANCE 11/02/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##