* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * VANCE EP212014 11/01/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 38 41 44 49 55 59 53 43 28 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 36 38 41 44 49 55 59 53 43 28 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 36 36 38 39 42 45 44 36 26 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 1 2 5 3 5 5 10 17 25 36 47 53 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -1 -1 -2 -1 4 15 22 9 7 0 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 168 356 19 312 304 304 244 214 225 221 242 244 259 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.4 28.6 28.6 28.8 29.3 29.8 29.1 28.8 28.1 28.1 29.1 29.0 27.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 147 151 151 153 159 163 156 152 145 145 156 154 137 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.4 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -52.3 -53.0 -51.9 -52.3 -52.0 -52.2 -52.2 -52.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 6 5 6 4 4 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 73 73 76 76 75 76 76 68 54 46 48 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 15 16 17 18 20 22 17 14 7 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 14 9 4 -1 -6 -12 -16 7 28 45 49 39 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 34 32 31 36 58 127 151 150 52 10 -23 -14 -37 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -3 -1 0 1 4 17 21 1 2 -1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 865 880 894 883 885 878 777 653 512 346 234 53 -149 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 9.5 9.8 10.1 10.6 11.1 12.4 14.2 16.1 17.9 19.6 21.2 22.7 24.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 102.7 103.7 104.7 105.8 106.9 108.9 109.9 110.1 109.8 108.9 107.8 106.6 105.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 11 12 12 10 10 9 9 9 10 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 13 14 13 12 15 42 35 30 12 10 52 24 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 551 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 23.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 21. 24. 26. 28. 30. 31. 33. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 6. 3. -1. -8. -15. -22. -23. -24. -27. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 9. 4. -1. -10. -14. -13. -12. -10. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 14. 20. 24. 18. 8. -7. -18. -25. -24. -22. -23. -23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 9.5 102.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP212014 VANCE 11/01/14 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.2 27.0 to 147.4 0.75 6.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 12.8 30.9 to 7.7 0.78 5.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.37 2.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 25.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.88 -5.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.54 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.11 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.51 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 30% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.3% 24.3% 18.2% 13.4% 9.4% 14.3% 29.7% 21.7% Logistic: 6.7% 47.8% 26.0% 15.6% 5.2% 33.9% 33.4% 10.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 2.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.7% 2.9% 3.7% Consensus: 5.7% 24.9% 14.9% 9.7% 4.9% 16.3% 22.0% 11.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212014 VANCE 11/01/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##