* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * VANCE EP212014 10/31/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 47 52 58 68 77 81 83 81 64 44 28 29 30 30 32 V (KT) LAND 40 43 47 52 58 68 77 81 83 81 64 44 31 28 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 40 43 45 48 50 57 65 73 72 63 45 28 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 6 1 4 5 5 3 10 12 21 29 38 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 1 -1 -1 -3 -3 -2 10 17 17 10 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 216 219 299 357 9 10 286 226 201 201 237 239 259 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.5 28.7 28.8 29.5 29.7 29.2 28.8 28.9 29.5 27.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 146 146 146 149 151 153 160 162 157 153 154 161 141 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.3 -53.1 -53.4 -53.5 -52.4 -52.8 -52.0 -52.4 -51.7 -51.9 -51.3 -51.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 6 6 7 7 7 6 5 6 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 59 63 66 69 72 70 70 72 67 59 51 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 16 18 20 22 27 28 28 28 20 8 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 17 16 19 19 20 10 0 2 3 15 18 76 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 47 50 71 73 81 90 101 153 151 138 48 17 -26 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -3 -3 -6 -4 3 8 13 15 -15 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 699 746 795 831 866 883 851 789 646 452 233 68 -142 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 10.2 10.0 9.8 9.8 9.8 10.4 11.5 13.1 15.0 17.2 19.3 21.3 23.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 100.5 101.1 101.8 102.6 103.4 105.2 107.0 108.5 109.0 108.6 107.6 106.1 104.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 7 7 8 8 10 11 10 10 11 12 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 13 11 10 14 17 14 20 44 32 21 19 31 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):200/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 553 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 43.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 18. 21. 23. 25. 27. 28. 30. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 2. -2. -9. -9. -10. -11. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 5. 7. 13. 18. 21. 22. 9. -6. -13. -11. -10. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 1. -0. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 10. 6. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 18. 28. 37. 41. 43. 41. 24. 4. -12. -11. -10. -10. -8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 10.2 100.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP212014 VANCE 10/31/14 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.67 6.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.0 30.9 to 7.7 0.73 5.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.51 3.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 120.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.77 -5.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 3.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.45 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.10 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.21 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 31% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 54% is 11.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.6% 25.7% 20.4% 15.6% 10.7% 15.0% 31.3% 53.6% Logistic: 4.1% 21.1% 11.6% 6.3% 1.9% 9.1% 21.6% 23.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 7.2% 2.5% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 4.7% Consensus: 5.3% 18.0% 11.5% 7.5% 4.2% 8.1% 17.7% 27.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212014 VANCE 10/31/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##