* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * VANCE EP212014 10/31/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 44 46 49 57 65 75 81 80 70 56 41 36 29 29 30 V (KT) LAND 40 42 44 46 49 57 65 75 81 80 70 56 41 33 29 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 40 42 44 46 47 50 54 60 64 59 47 31 22 18 23 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 10 8 3 6 8 2 3 9 18 26 32 43 52 58 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -1 2 0 -3 -1 -1 5 13 14 13 8 1 -2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 207 224 239 273 302 354 306 241 224 207 215 217 238 257 255 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.8 29.4 29.8 29.4 28.9 28.6 29.1 29.4 28.8 27.4 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 147 148 148 150 151 152 159 163 159 154 151 156 158 152 137 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.5 -53.2 -53.0 -53.3 -53.2 -52.8 -52.4 -52.3 -52.2 -52.2 -51.9 -52.0 -52.2 -52.1 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 7 7 6 5 6 5 3 1 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 60 59 63 66 70 72 71 74 71 68 53 46 40 40 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 13 15 16 20 22 27 28 27 22 14 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 12 13 13 20 18 14 3 -5 -4 -1 15 36 73 51 43 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 47 35 40 61 63 85 114 140 120 139 77 50 -14 -43 -14 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 -2 -3 -4 1 10 19 25 -1 0 0 7 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 661 705 750 801 852 901 889 851 755 593 408 189 89 -7 -164 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 10.6 10.4 10.2 10.1 9.9 10.2 11.0 12.3 13.9 16.0 17.9 19.6 21.2 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 100.6 101.1 101.7 102.5 103.3 105.1 106.8 108.3 109.2 109.3 108.6 107.3 106.3 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 6 7 8 8 9 10 9 10 10 10 10 9 8 8 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 15 13 12 14 16 15 16 45 36 30 14 25 34 19 7 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):240/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 551 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 29.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 18. 21. 23. 25. 27. 29. 30. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 4. 1. -5. -10. -17. -19. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. -10. -10. -10. -9. -7. -6. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 18. 22. 22. 14. 2. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 4. 2. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 17. 25. 35. 41. 40. 30. 16. 1. -4. -11. -11. -10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 10.6 100.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP212014 VANCE 10/31/14 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.68 6.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.6 30.9 to 7.7 0.66 4.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.43 2.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 147.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.75 -4.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 2.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.29 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.11 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.36 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 53% is 11.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.3% 21.3% 18.1% 14.0% 0.0% 0.0% 21.7% 52.6% Logistic: 4.8% 25.6% 14.8% 8.0% 4.0% 9.6% 21.9% 29.4% Bayesian: 0.6% 7.6% 1.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.5% 1.1% 3.6% Consensus: 5.3% 18.2% 11.6% 7.5% 1.4% 3.4% 14.9% 28.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212014 VANCE 10/31/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##