* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * VANCE EP212014 10/30/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 38 40 42 47 53 60 67 73 75 70 61 50 40 39 40 V (KT) LAND 35 37 38 40 42 47 53 60 67 73 75 70 61 44 32 28 27 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 39 40 42 44 46 48 51 54 51 43 33 24 26 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 7 11 9 4 4 10 2 6 9 17 26 35 56 45 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -6 -4 -1 0 -1 0 0 5 11 17 7 -5 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 208 202 209 215 231 315 341 296 233 226 216 216 224 243 253 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.6 29.8 29.3 28.9 28.5 29.3 28.0 27.4 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 152 152 153 155 157 160 163 158 154 150 159 145 139 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.1 -53.4 -53.6 -53.3 -53.4 -53.2 -53.0 -52.9 -53.0 -52.7 -52.7 -52.2 -52.3 -53.1 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 8 8 6 7 7 7 6 5 6 3 1 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 57 58 58 59 64 69 71 71 74 70 63 54 47 34 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 10 11 12 14 16 17 19 22 23 21 17 13 9 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -1 6 9 14 16 22 17 8 -5 0 7 19 39 51 0 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 39 39 48 38 48 62 68 90 135 141 181 104 33 -28 -34 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -4 -1 1 5 17 26 5 -7 -5 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 619 659 699 744 789 871 894 898 858 726 555 329 133 -67 -334 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.1 10.9 10.7 10.5 10.3 10.1 10.5 11.3 12.5 14.3 16.3 18.6 20.8 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 100.8 101.2 101.7 102.2 102.8 104.2 105.8 107.5 108.7 109.3 109.1 108.2 106.9 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 5 6 7 7 9 8 9 10 11 12 13 13 13 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 20 17 16 16 17 19 17 29 49 37 30 13 55 11 7 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 526 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 17.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 21. 24. 27. 29. 31. 33. 35. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 4. 1. -6. -12. -14. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -11. -12. -13. -12. -11. -9. -7. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 14. 18. 19. 14. 9. 3. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 4. 2. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 7. 13. 18. 25. 32. 38. 40. 35. 26. 15. 5. 4. 5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 11.1 100.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP212014 VANCE 10/30/14 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.75 6.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 12.9 30.9 to 7.7 0.78 5.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.39 2.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 164.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.73 -4.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.33 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.14 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.12 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.9% 22.7% 19.3% 14.9% 0.0% 0.0% 17.2% 0.0% Logistic: 1.9% 8.3% 4.8% 2.1% 1.6% 6.2% 20.7% 31.2% Bayesian: 0.8% 4.9% 1.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 1.8% Consensus: 4.6% 12.0% 8.4% 5.8% 0.6% 2.1% 12.7% 11.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212014 VANCE 10/30/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##