* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANA CP022014 10/26/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 46 39 35 35 31 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 46 39 35 35 31 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 48 42 36 29 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 26 35 50 57 69 68 53 47 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 3 -4 -5 -11 -12 -6 -8 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 316 308 291 281 272 252 246 243 246 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 17.2 15.0 14.1 13.2 13.3 12.5 12.6 12.5 9.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 69 69 67 66 64 61 62 63 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.0 -48.9 -48.2 -47.7 -47.1 -46.1 -46.0 -47.4 -49.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 1.6 1.7 1.5 2.0 3.0 3.2 2.4 1.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 54 60 61 57 42 45 53 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 19 21 24 28 28 26 18 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 104 203 200 203 205 227 137 95 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 53 79 69 63 44 24 27 42 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 73 95 174 129 53 -12 -12 -2 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1884 1718 1606 1332 1063 830 611 249 -97 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 39.1 41.4 43.6 45.5 47.3 49.1 50.3 52.2 54.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 154.9 151.3 147.7 145.2 142.7 140.7 138.1 133.5 129.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 37 35 30 25 18 11 14 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 39 CX,CY: 32/ 22 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 702 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -3. -7. -11. -15. -21. -23. -25. -28. -31. -34. -39. -44. -49. -55. -58. -62. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 2. 3. 3. -4. -18. -45. -73. -94.-102.-110.-122.-136.-157.-169. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 7. 10. 12. 12. 13. 13. 12. 11. 10. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -0. 1. 4. 10. 22. 34. 40. 41. 37. 31. 20. 16. 10. 14. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. -16. -16. -17. -17. -20. -22. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 5. 9. 9. 9. 1. -16. -16. -16. -15. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -2. -3. -3. -1. 0. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 16. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -3. -4. -6. -11. -16. -18. -16. -14. -13. -12. -12. -9. -8. -4. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -9. -16. -20. -20. -24. -30. -44. -76.-100.-122.-138.-156.-181.-202.-226.-231. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 39.1 154.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP022014 ANA 10/26/14 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 12.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.00 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 59.3 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.49 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 199.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.69 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.67 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 85.4 62.3 to 0.0 0.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP022014 ANA 10/26/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##