* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANA CP022014 10/23/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 48 49 49 47 42 38 35 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 46 48 49 49 47 42 38 35 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 46 48 48 47 42 34 27 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 6 14 17 17 18 14 15 26 58 70 69 64 63 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -1 0 3 9 13 17 20 1 -13 -10 -2 0 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 104 316 307 301 306 307 342 310 291 278 267 276 270 266 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.5 27.1 26.3 25.2 24.4 23.3 21.4 18.7 16.1 14.3 14.1 14.9 15.6 14.6 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 139 135 127 116 108 97 79 66 68 67 64 62 62 62 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.9 -54.3 -54.5 -53.8 -52.3 -51.4 -50.4 -48.6 -47.4 -47.0 -46.7 -46.5 -46.6 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.2 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.7 1.9 2.4 2.8 2.8 2.2 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 6 5 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 54 57 59 59 56 57 52 49 53 42 36 41 43 N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 19 19 20 19 18 19 22 20 20 17 14 11 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -31 -40 -43 -48 -32 -10 -7 36 134 119 139 152 114 29 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 16 15 18 5 27 38 48 21 50 31 0 -4 -10 -8 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 10 12 18 25 47 26 80 51 54 -17 13 0 -6 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1081 1151 1230 1267 1316 1365 1444 1692 1753 1335 873 625 379 138 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.7 27.8 28.9 30.0 31.0 32.9 34.9 37.4 40.9 45.1 47.5 48.0 48.5 xx.x N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 169.5 169.6 169.7 169.2 168.7 166.5 162.8 157.9 151.8 144.8 139.4 135.7 132.1 xxx.x N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 11 11 12 15 21 26 31 28 17 12 12 13 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 15 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 7 CX,CY: -2/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 703 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -4. -6. -8. -13. -19. -24. -28. -31. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -4. -17. -35. -48. -60. -74. -83. -97.-105. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 12. 13. 10. 8. 6. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -15. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. 0. 4. 1. 1. -3. -6. -9. -8. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 4. 2. -3. -7. -10. -24. -40. -60. -80.-106.-119.-135.-143. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 26.7 169.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP022014 ANA 10/23/14 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.44 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.1 30.9 to 7.7 0.43 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.26 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 281.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.60 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.61 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.02 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 17.2 62.3 to 0.0 0.72 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP022014 ANA 10/23/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##