* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANA CP022014 10/23/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 53 56 58 60 58 54 51 48 36 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 49 53 56 58 60 58 54 51 48 36 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 49 53 55 57 56 50 40 31 23 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 3 9 13 17 16 14 3 13 32 64 69 46 62 72 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -2 0 0 5 9 15 17 18 -5 -10 2 -3 1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 199 280 315 308 303 286 342 351 301 285 276 271 275 269 285 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.5 27.4 27.1 26.5 25.7 24.4 23.3 20.9 18.1 15.0 13.5 12.9 12.5 14.1 13.3 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 139 137 134 128 120 107 98 74 67 68 67 66 62 63 66 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.2 -54.2 -54.5 -54.6 -53.3 -52.3 -51.0 -49.5 -47.5 -47.2 -47.6 -48.5 -47.2 -48.9 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.7 1.8 2.2 1.9 2.8 0.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 6 5 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 52 56 60 61 57 57 53 45 45 47 41 46 44 50 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 17 17 17 19 18 18 19 23 23 23 20 13 5 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -28 -26 -41 -45 -49 -25 -12 20 99 207 200 155 62 79 -1 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 7 -1 15 13 8 36 32 23 27 31 37 5 -10 -5 -21 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 4 8 10 13 34 30 38 66 98 95 20 0 -11 5 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 984 1058 1135 1193 1256 1311 1347 1474 1806 1618 1219 677 158 222 -345 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.2 27.0 27.8 28.7 29.5 31.1 32.9 35.2 38.4 42.5 46.4 50.1 53.8 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 168.7 169.0 169.4 169.5 169.5 168.5 166.1 162.7 157.5 150.6 144.4 139.1 133.8 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 8 11 16 22 30 31 27 25 12 16 26 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 19 13 6 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 10 CX,CY: -3/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 753 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 0. -2. -5. -9. -14. -20. -25. -27. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 1. -5. -19. -34. -44. -57. -75. -88. -95. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 9. 6. 3. -0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -14. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. 9. 10. 8. 5. -3. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 14. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 11. 13. 15. 13. 9. 6. 3. -9. -28. -47. -77.-111.-127.-134. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 26.2 168.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP022014 ANA 10/23/14 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.50 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.5 30.9 to 7.7 0.54 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.22 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 285.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.59 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.05 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 56.2 62.3 to 0.0 0.10 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP022014 ANA 10/23/14 12 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING