* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANA CP022014 10/23/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 39 42 44 48 54 54 56 54 47 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 36 39 42 44 48 54 54 56 54 47 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 36 37 38 39 41 42 40 35 28 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 7 3 6 7 13 10 2 11 21 50 74 71 67 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 -2 -1 -2 8 15 11 10 4 -11 -7 0 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 215 207 235 300 318 305 279 302 285 293 287 283 284 282 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.4 26.6 24.8 23.8 20.7 16.6 14.8 13.7 13.0 15.4 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 140 139 138 136 136 129 112 104 75 69 67 66 64 66 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.1 -54.3 -54.3 -54.5 -54.5 -53.1 -52.4 -51.2 -48.7 -47.6 -47.6 -47.9 -47.2 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 -0.2 -0.5 -0.2 0.2 0.2 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.4 1.1 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 8 7 6 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 45 46 49 52 55 55 54 53 50 49 57 45 55 55 N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 16 16 16 16 18 16 17 19 21 23 24 16 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -23 -30 -35 -49 -48 -61 -29 -27 10 157 163 213 129 86 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 5 8 -5 12 4 7 12 20 14 38 24 8 0 2 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 3 4 7 7 11 20 21 43 58 114 103 71 62 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 888 951 1016 1076 1136 1210 1238 1293 1495 1789 1509 967 441 198 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.1 25.7 26.3 26.9 27.4 28.6 30.2 32.3 35.6 40.2 44.3 47.9 51.6 xx.x N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 168.2 168.6 169.0 169.4 169.7 169.7 168.5 166.2 161.1 153.5 146.9 141.7 136.5 xxx.x N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 6 6 7 12 21 32 35 28 25 20 25 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 19 21 17 13 10 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 9 CX,CY: -2/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 673 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 11. 12. 11. 10. 6. 1. -4. -6. -8. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 1. -9. -24. -39. -55. -62. -73. -81. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 4. -1. -4. -8. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 4. 3. 4. 6. 9. 12. 11. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 19. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 9. 13. 19. 19. 21. 19. 12. -3. -25. -59. -70. -84. -89. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 25.1 168.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP022014 ANA 10/23/14 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.63 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.6 30.9 to 7.7 0.62 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.20 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 259.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.62 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.13 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 74.3 62.3 to 0.0 0.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP022014 ANA 10/23/14 06 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING