* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE AL092014 10/22/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 32 32 35 38 46 51 60 67 76 81 82 82 84 84 V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 32 28 27 27 32 38 46 54 63 68 69 69 70 71 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 30 27 27 27 31 35 40 46 52 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 16 15 13 8 12 8 14 12 12 9 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 2 -1 -5 -4 -6 -6 -4 -3 0 0 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 246 241 234 239 226 181 169 185 198 190 230 249 259 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.6 28.9 29.2 28.9 28.6 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 139 140 143 148 153 148 143 151 153 153 154 154 154 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 124 126 129 133 138 134 129 137 139 139 140 140 140 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.8 -52.5 -52.7 -52.9 -52.3 -52.6 -52.1 -52.3 -51.7 -52.2 -51.9 -52.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 8 8 7 6 8 7 9 8 8 7 8 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 77 73 72 70 69 70 66 61 50 47 46 54 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 12 12 11 11 11 12 13 16 20 24 27 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 76 75 83 78 71 82 83 83 82 86 61 65 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 51 56 49 55 61 29 39 8 1 26 19 43 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -4 -2 0 -2 0 -5 0 0 0 1 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 89 81 44 15 -31 -137 -57 28 134 239 296 315 362 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.4 19.4 19.3 19.3 19.2 19.0 18.8 18.6 18.5 18.5 18.5 18.5 18.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 92.4 91.9 91.4 90.9 90.4 89.4 88.3 87.3 86.3 85.3 84.3 83.3 82.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 17 18 25 32 28 4 30 47 51 52 67 97 111 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 80/ 3 CX,CY: 3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 562 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 19. 23. 26. 29. 32. 34. 35. 35. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -5. -5. -5. -1. 3. 9. 12. 10. 9. 8. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 2. 5. 8. 16. 21. 30. 37. 46. 51. 52. 52. 54. 54. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 19.4 92.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092014 NINE 10/22/14 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.3 45.1 to 6.7 0.62 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.15 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 36.6 to 2.8 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.0 27.0 to 140.8 0.64 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.39 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.9 to -3.0 999.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 58.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.87 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092014 NINE 10/22/14 12 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092014 NINE 10/22/2014 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 31 32 28 27 27 32 38 46 54 63 68 69 69 70 71 18HR AGO 30 29 29 30 26 25 25 30 36 44 52 61 66 67 67 68 69 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 23 22 22 27 33 41 49 58 63 64 64 65 66 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 16 15 15 20 26 34 42 51 56 57 57 58 59 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT