* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANA CP022014 10/21/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 33 33 34 37 42 50 55 55 49 42 38 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 33 33 34 37 42 50 55 55 49 42 38 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 32 30 29 29 30 32 35 35 31 25 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 28 23 22 16 11 5 9 22 24 28 20 29 35 65 63 64 62 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 0 0 -1 -2 -2 3 8 12 22 18 -15 -8 -1 -5 SHEAR DIR 230 233 238 227 205 130 283 296 285 285 305 285 263 246 244 246 248 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.2 27.9 27.5 27.0 26.2 24.0 23.1 21.0 19.3 17.5 14.3 15.1 16.7 18.1 POT. INT. (KT) 146 147 147 146 143 139 134 126 103 95 73 63 69 66 62 64 64 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 -53.5 -53.0 -53.4 -53.3 -53.1 -52.0 -50.8 -49.1 -47.5 -49.3 -48.6 -49.1 -50.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.2 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.7 1.0 0.7 2.4 2.7 1.4 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 11 10 10 9 6 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 700-500 MB RH 48 47 43 46 45 45 49 59 63 60 60 44 39 47 40 33 32 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 18 19 20 21 22 22 23 23 22 24 29 29 25 17 9 850 MB ENV VOR -13 -22 -38 -38 -46 -42 -57 -76 -55 -33 33 176 265 147 162 90 46 200 MB DIV 45 26 -5 -6 -17 17 7 26 23 62 45 59 11 34 3 -14 -27 700-850 TADV 10 5 1 0 1 1 6 18 33 62 64 88 12 -65 -74 -109 -98 LAND (KM) 574 648 728 784 849 933 1000 1074 1175 1300 1479 1726 1807 1140 1232 1112 710 LAT (DEG N) 20.9 21.4 21.9 22.8 23.6 25.7 27.7 29.7 31.6 33.5 35.5 37.7 39.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 165.7 166.5 167.3 167.8 168.3 168.4 167.8 166.6 165.1 163.1 160.6 157.8 154.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 9 10 10 10 11 12 12 13 15 16 36 26 12 18 19 HEAT CONTENT 43 40 33 23 18 20 10 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 651 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 16. 17. 16. 13. 9. 4. -1. -4. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. -4. -11. -16. -19. -24. -36. -50. -69. -83. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 2. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 4. 6. 11. 11. 5. -2. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. -1. 2. 7. 15. 20. 20. 14. 7. 3. -3. -21. -47. -82.-110. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 20.9 165.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP022014 ANA 10/21/14 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.70 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.9 30.9 to 7.7 0.13 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.22 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 293.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.58 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 31.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.29 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 46.9 62.3 to 0.0 0.25 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP022014 ANA 10/21/14 18 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING