* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANA CP022014 10/21/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 43 45 46 48 55 61 67 68 63 56 46 39 36 30 24 22 V (KT) LAND 45 43 45 46 48 55 61 67 68 63 56 46 39 36 30 24 22 V (KT) LGEM 45 42 41 40 40 42 46 50 51 49 42 34 27 23 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 28 25 20 18 14 5 6 8 18 29 39 33 24 35 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -2 0 -3 -4 -1 0 2 0 -2 5 13 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 235 231 221 227 230 151 37 324 305 289 282 322 304 292 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 27.8 27.4 27.1 26.4 24.5 23.8 21.7 19.9 19.0 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 144 145 145 145 145 141 137 134 128 109 103 81 62 62 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.4 -53.6 -53.2 -53.5 -53.6 -53.3 -53.3 -53.3 -53.3 -52.6 -52.6 -51.2 -49.4 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 -0.1 0.0 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.5 1.0 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 11 10 10 8 6 3 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 41 43 46 45 42 44 44 49 59 68 72 75 73 62 N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 17 19 19 18 20 22 24 25 25 25 25 26 32 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -23 -21 -11 -23 -33 -32 -23 -41 -68 -74 -47 26 113 183 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 27 11 50 12 -16 -4 -2 2 19 13 38 67 64 57 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 5 4 2 0 1 0 5 13 28 40 46 69 65 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 445 507 574 631 693 790 866 950 1023 1112 1230 1420 1684 1864 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.8 21.2 21.6 22.2 22.8 24.3 25.8 27.3 29.1 31.0 33.0 35.0 37.0 xx.x N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 164.4 165.1 165.8 166.4 166.9 167.5 167.6 167.5 166.6 165.0 162.4 158.9 155.5 xxx.x N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 8 8 8 8 7 8 11 13 16 17 14 12 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 34 36 37 32 25 19 19 13 2 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 622 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 12. 12. 12. 10. 5. 0. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -6. -13. -19. -21. -26. -29. -33. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 2. 4. 7. 11. 13. 13. 13. 12. 12. 18. 16. 14. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -0. 1. 3. 10. 16. 22. 23. 18. 11. 1. -6. -9. -15. -21. -23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 20.8 164.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP022014 ANA 10/21/14 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.61 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 28.9 30.9 to 7.7 0.09 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.26 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 392.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.47 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.30 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 16.3 62.3 to 0.0 0.74 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP022014 ANA 10/21/14 06 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING